WTI Price Forecast: Slides further below $100.50; bullish potential seems intact

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – builds on the weekly bearish gap-down opening, retreating further from a five-month high touched on Friday. The commodity slides below mid-$100.00s during the Asian session, though the downside potential seems limited amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties.

US President Donald Trump on Sunday ruled out immediate military action against Iran. Adding to this, Trump earlier suggested that the US might need to finish the job or potentially reach a deal with Tehran amidst growing Iranian and Houthi threats against American interests in the region. This, in turn, fuels hopes about de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East and prompts some selling around crude oil prices at the start of a new week.

Meanwhile, an unnamed US official told an Israeli news channel that Trump was prepared to shift gears on Iran and that military strikes no longer appeared to be a question of if, but of when. Moreover, the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen threatened on Sunday that they will keep attacking Saudi Arabia's King Khalid Airport in Riyadh. Moreover, stalled US-Iran talks keep the geopolitical risk premium in play and could support crude oil prices.

From a technical perspective, the black liquid retains a bullish near-term bias above the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the upswing from the monthly low. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator hovers just above the zero line with a mildly positive reading, while the Relative Strength Index near 55 suggests steady upside momentum.

Hence, any subsequent fall could find initial support at the $99.30 area defined by the 23.6% Fibo. retracement, followed by the 50-period SMA near $97.83 and the 38.2% retracement at $96.84, which together form a broader demand cluster on pullbacks. On the topside, the immediate hurdle is the Fibonacci anchor around $103.29, and a sustained break above this level would open the way for an extension of the recent well-established bullish trend.

WTI 4-hour chart