Why XRP May Need to Fall Against Bitcoin Before It Wins Again: Analyst

XRP may need to drop toward a long-standing historical demand zone against Bitcoin (BTC) before it can start its next major outperformance period.

Analyst ChartNerd challenges the common view that XRP simply follows BTC, suggesting investors expecting an immediate recovery could be getting ahead of themselves.

XRP’s Historical Outperformance Has Started From One Zone

The first notable example comes from 2014, between April and July, after XRP/USD established a bottom around June that year before going on to form a higher low, which eventually led into the 2017-2018 rally.

There was another setup like that in October 2020 and January 2021. Then, XRP had already established its price low before starting another period of relative strength against BTC, although the primary cryptocurrency eventually hit a new all-time high while XRP did not. Still, the Ripple token staged a substantial catch-up rally.

It was the same between April and October 2024, the analyst noted, and this came before XRP’s march toward its July 2025 peak, when it shattered records to reach $3.65. However, he was candid about XRP’s longer-term performance, pointing out that it has underperformed Bitcoin for at least 8 years, with BTC recording successive ATHs before XRP was able to jump past its 2018 peak.

The market watcher also pointed to a resistance level that has rejected XRP/BTC several times since 2020, including during the 2021 and 2025 highs.

You may also like:

• Ripple (XRP) ETFs Beat Every Major Rival in October: But Two Problems Remain
• Ripple Had a Massive October, but XRP Went the Other Way
• ‘Uptober’ Flopped as BTC Tanked 7%: Will November Be Any Different?

October’s Performance Adds to the Bearish Case

At the time of writing, CoinGecko data had XRP trading at around $1.25, pretty much the same spot it was in 24 hours before, but a near 2% drop in seven days and an almost 16% dip across one month. Over one year, the world’s fifth-biggest cryptocurrency has lost half of its value, while the current price is some 65% below its all-time high.

Interestingly, even as XRP dipped by double digits in October, spot ETFs wedded to it attracted just shy of $19 million to make it the seventh month in a row of positive flows, although last month’s number was way off the $121 million and $159 million that came in in September and August, respectively.

Meanwhile, ChartNerd cautioned that if the market is coming from a bear phase, then capital could first rotate into BTC, with XRP’s strongest flows typically arriving later in the OG asset’s cycle, which would leave XRP bulls having to first contend with another period of weakness against Bitcoin before the next meaningful rally.