Russia lowers wheat export forecast for 2026-27, Chicago wheat prices rise 0.7%

Due to the weakening outlook for Russian wheat exports, which has heightened market concerns about global supply, wheat futures prices have risen. Persistent transportation disruptions in the Black Sea region continue to limit exports from this major grain-producing area. Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR has lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2026-27 season from 42 million tons to 39.5 million tons. As a result of this news, the main Chicago wheat futures contract once rose by 0.7%, ending a previous two-day decline. In addition, the agency has also reduced its forecast for Russia’s total grain exports from 52.8 million tons to 49.5 million tons. Futures International stated that, currently, the remaining capacity of rail transport and Baltic routes is limited, while traditional Black Sea shipping routes are hampered by regional instability. Russian exporters are increasingly turning to railways, Baltic ports, and container shipping; the seasonal closure of inland river navigation in mid-November may place further strain on railway networks, resulting in even tighter export logistics and driving up winter transportation costs. Slow U.S. export pace, together with competition from other supplier countries, also limits the upside for wheat prices.