what stocks go up during christmas: seasonal winners

Stocks that go up during Christmas

what stocks go up during christmas is a common query from investors and traders looking to understand which equities and sectors historically benefit from the year‑end holiday season and the so‑called Santa Claus Rally. This article explains the phrase, the standard time window used in seasonality research, empirical findings, the primary drivers behind year‑end strength, the sectors and individual stocks commonly cited, ETF alternatives, trading approaches, notable exceptions, and a practical checklist for evaluating whether a Christmas‑period trade may be appropriate for your portfolio. It also points to reputable sources and research for follow‑up.

As of January 15, 2026, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac and reporting summarized by Investopedia and major brokerage research, seasonal patterns such as the Santa Claus Rally have shown persistent though not guaranteed positive returns in many years. This article is informational and not investment advice; readers should consult licensed financial advisers and consider risk management before trading.

Definition and scope

The question what stocks go up during christmas asks which equities and sectors typically benefit from the year‑end holiday season and the Santa Claus Rally. In practice this query aims to identify:

• The calendar window when seasonal effects are measured.
• The sectors and individual equities that have historically outperformed during that window.
• The plausible drivers and how traders structure positions to capture potential gains while managing risk.

Time window

The standard definition of the Santa Claus Rally used in most seasonality studies is the last five trading days of December plus the first two trading days of January — a seven‑trading‑day window. Related seasonal measures include the First Five Days (the first five trading days of January) and the January Barometer (the idea that January's performance predicts the full year). Researchers also examine other overlapping windows (e.g., last ten trading days of December, entire December, or holiday week) when answering what stocks go up during christmas.

Historical performance and empirical evidence

Aggregate results

Long‑running analyses show the Santa Claus Rally is a persistent but probabilistic pattern rather than a law. Many summaries report an average S&P 500 gain of roughly +1.0% to +1.5% over the seven‑day Santa Claus Rally period when examined over multiple decades. The effect has historically been positive in roughly 65%–80% of years depending on the sample period and index used. These numbers vary by dataset, index, and starting year.

As of January 15, 2026, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the Santa Claus Rally has delivered positive returns in a majority of sample years going back to the mid‑20th century. Investopedia and several brokerage research notes have published similar summary statistics, noting that averages and win rates change when sub‑periods or different indices (e.g., NASDAQ, Russell 2000) are examined.

Studies and data sources

Key sources that document the effect include the Stock Trader's Almanac (a longstanding seasonal research reference), Investopedia and other financial media summaries, independent seasonality researchers (Schaeffer's, Bespoke Investment Group), and brokerage research papers. Data is typically drawn from index providers (S&P, NASDAQ), FactSet, or proprietary backtests. Limitations of seasonality studies include survivorship bias, changing market microstructure, structural changes in the economy, and differing start/end dates for samples. Accordingly, seasonality is an indicator to consider, not a guarantee.

Primary drivers of year‑end stock strength

Several plausible mechanisms are usually cited to explain why what stocks go up during christmas often includes certain sectors and large caps:

• Consumer spending and retail sales: Holiday gift buying, Black Friday/Cyber Monday results, and seasonal promotions often boost sales for retailers and e‑commerce platforms. Strong consumer payments and transaction volumes can lift stocks tied to retail revenue flows and payment processing.

• Institutional and market structure factors: Window‑dressing by fund managers (buying winners to improve reported holdings), portfolio rebalancing, and lighter market liquidity during the holiday season can magnify moves. Reduced trading volumes may produce larger price moves for the same order flow.

• Tax and cash‑flow factors: Year‑end tax‑loss harvesting can first suppress prices before results are reversed by buying. Year‑end bonuses and seasonal flows into markets (including employer contributions or discretionary allocations) sometimes increase cash available for stock purchases.

• Investor psychology and holiday optimism: The holiday season can correlate with more optimistic investor sentiment and media narratives, which can produce performance chasing and momentum flows.

Caveat about causation vs correlation

These factors help explain why certain stocks and sectors might outperform around Christmas, but correlation does not prove causation. Seasonality works probabilistically and can be broken by macro shocks, earnings surprises, or idiosyncratic company news.

Sectors that commonly benefit during the Christmas period

Below are the sectors and sub‑industries that analysts and media often cite when answering what stocks go up during christmas. Examples of representative companies are given for illustration; examples are not recommendations.

Retail and e‑commerce

Why they benefit: Holiday shopping and online promotions concentrate a large share of annual sales into a short period. Retailers that execute promotions and logistics well can report outsized seasonal revenue and traffic.

Typical names cited: Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Costco (COST), Shopify (SHOP), Etsy (ETSY). These large caps see higher seasonal transaction counts and consumer attention.

Consumer discretionary and electronics

Why they benefit: Apparel, toys, gaming, and consumer electronics are classic gift categories. New product releases timed for the holiday season (phones, game consoles) concentrate demand.

Typical names cited: Apple (AAPL), Sony (SONY), Nintendo (NTDOY), Nike (NKE) and broader apparel and luxury retail names.

Home improvement and specialty seasonal retailers

Why they benefit: Some consumers use year‑end periods for home projects and seasonal purchases. Home improvement chains can see stable or improved traffic when consumer confidence and promotions align.

Typical names cited: Home Depot (HD), Lowe's (LOW).

Shipping, logistics and delivery

Why they benefit: Increased package volume drives revenue for carriers and logistics firms. Margins depend on capacity and fuel costs, but order volumes usually rise markedly.

Typical names cited: UPS (UPS), FedEx (FDX), and freight/logistics companies and related supply‑chain providers.

Payments, fintech and point‑of‑sale

Why they benefit: Higher transaction volumes increase merchant fees and processing revenue. Fintech platforms and card networks can see higher processed dollar volumes.

Typical names cited: Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), PayPal (PYPL) and select payment processors.

Select technology and semiconductors

Why they benefit: Product cycles (phones, consoles, computers) and inventory replenishment can boost demand for certain technology firms and their semiconductor suppliers. In recent years, AI‑related demand and compute spend have also introduced momentum into certain tech names.

Typical names cited: Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), Intel (INTC) and component suppliers tied to consumer electronics.

Consumer staples and beverages

Why they benefit: Packaged goods, beverages, and certain staples often show resilience as holiday gatherings increase consumption. These firms can provide stable returns in mixed market environments.

Typical names cited: PepsiCo (PEP), Coca‑Cola (KO), Kraft Heinz (KHC).

Typical individual stock examples cited by analysts and media

Commonly mentioned large‑cap examples

When the question what stocks go up during christmas is discussed in media and analyst notes, large, liquid names are frequently cited because they combine seasonal demand exposure with high liquidity and broad investor ownership. Examples often referenced include Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT), Costco (COST), Home Depot (HD), Apple (AAPL), and Microsoft (MSFT). These are typically used as examples of likely seasonal beneficiaries rather than guaranteed winners.

Analyst holiday picks

Media outlets and research shops publish holiday “stocks to watch” lists each year. Morningstar and other retail‑facing outlets often highlight names with stable franchises or seasonal tailwinds — e.g., PepsiCo, Nike, Alphabet — based on sales momentum, valuation, and dividend profiles. Brokerage notes frequently highlight retail and payment companies around November and December as potential plays for holiday strength.

Case studies

A few recent seasonal case studies illustrate how idiosyncratic factors matter:

• Technology winner seasons: In some years, a new product cycle (smartphone or game console launch) made a handful of tech names outperform in December–January due to demand concentration.
• Retail outperformers: Certain brick‑and‑mortar and e‑commerce retailers outperformed when sales beat expectations following strong Black Friday and Cyber Monday metrics.

These case studies highlight that the bigger driver is the interaction of firm fundamentals with seasonal demand rather than seasonality alone.

Exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) and index plays for the season

For investors who prefer basket exposure rather than single‑stock risk, ETFs offer ways to participate in the seasonal window associated with what stocks go up during christmas.

Broad market ETFs

Broad ETFs such as SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and QQQ (NASDAQ‑100 ETF) are common choices for those wanting market exposure to the Santa Claus Rally without picking individual names. These ETFs provide liquidity and options availability for defined‑risk strategies.

Thematic and sector ETFs

Sector and thematic ETFs can concentrate exposure to likely seasonal beneficiaries: XLY (Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund), XRT (SPDR S&P Retail ETF), IYT (iShares Transportation Average ETF) for logistics and shipping, and payment or fintech‑oriented funds for transaction growth. Using sector or thematic ETFs reduces company‑specific risk while targeting the holiday drivers described earlier.

Trading strategies used around the holidays

Long equity exposure and timing

Common approaches include establishing or increasing long positions into the holiday period and holding through the early January trading days. Some traders buy on weakness ahead of the window to capture a potential rebound into the first trading days of January.

Options and defined‑risk strategies

Options strategies are often used to express a directional view while limiting downside. Commonly referenced approaches include:

• Bull put spreads (selling a put and buying a lower‑strike put) on SPY or sector ETFs to collect premium with defined downside.
• Covered calls on long positions to monetize expected sideways or modestly higher moves.
• Calendar spreads or short‑dated call purchases to target concentrated moves during the seven‑day window.

Risk management

Holiday trading presents particular risks: thinner liquidity, wider bid‑ask spreads, and the potential for headline‑driven gaps when markets reopen after holidays. Practiced risk management — position sizing, stop losses, and attention to option liquidity — is important. Bitget provides educational materials on options and risk controls; traders should ensure they understand margin and contract specifications before using options strategies.

Notable exceptions and sectors/stocks that underperform

Historical underperformers

Not all stocks benefit from the holiday window. Retailers that miss holiday sales expectations, companies with inventory gluts, or firms facing negative seasonal trends can underperform. Analyses of winners and losers during Santa Claus Rally windows show that some sectors do not follow the broad market, and small caps or highly cyclical names can lag.

Macro shocks and disruptions

Macro events such as sudden rate moves, geopolitical disruptions, supply‑chain problems, or unexpectedly weak consumer spending can reverse seasonal patterns. For example, a disappointing earnings report, inventory write‑downs, or logistic bottlenecks during peak season have in some years led to underperformance among otherwise favored holiday stocks.

How to evaluate whether a Christmas‑period trade is appropriate

Checklist

1. Company fundamentals: Are sales and margins consistent with a seasonal boost? Look for firms that disclose holiday season expectations or show historical holiday revenue concentration.
2. Recent sales/earnings trends: Review recent same‑store sales, e‑commerce order metrics, and guidance revisions.
3. Inventory and supply‑chain signals: High inventories or fulfillment bottlenecks can spoil holiday strength. Monitor retailer inventories and shipping metrics.
4. Analyst guidance and media coverage: Read holiday sales commentary from companies and reputable outlets.
5. Liquidity and options availability: Ensure the stock or ETF has adequate trading volume and options open interest for your intended strategy.
6. Tax and trading calendar: Be mindful of year‑end tax considerations and settlement windows for corporate actions.
7. Position sizing and stop levels: Specify risk limits and the exit plan if the trade moves against you.

Research sources

Consult seasonal research from the Stock Trader's Almanac, brokerage notes, and reputable market coverage. Company press releases, earnings calls, and retail sales reports (published by government agencies and industry groups) offer primary data for holiday performance. Data firms (FactSet, Refinitiv) and index providers provide historical return series used in seasonality studies.

Limitations, caveats and regulatory/ethical notes

Statistical limitations

Seasonality is probabilistic and relies on historical patterns that may not persist. Changes in consumer behavior, market structure, and macro conditions can alter the effectiveness of historical seasonality.

Not investment advice

This encyclopedic content is informational and educational only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Readers should consult licensed financial professionals before making investment decisions.

Regulatory and ethical notes

When trading, use licensed, compliant platforms. If using Bitget for execution or Bitget Wallet for Web3 asset custody, confirm product specifications, fees, and regulatory disclosures. Maintain ethical behavior: avoid market manipulation and respect applicable securities laws.

Related calendar phenomena and indicators

January Barometer and First Five Days

The January Barometer suggests that January's performance predicts the full year's return. The First Five Days indicator measures the return for the first five trading days of January and is sometimes combined with the Santa Claus Rally to gauge early‑year momentum.

Other seasonal effects

Other well‑known seasonal rules include “sell in May” (the tendency for weaker returns from May–October) and end‑of‑quarter window dressing. Each seasonal effect is context‑dependent and should be evaluated with current market dynamics and fundamentals.

References and further reading

Sources commonly cited in seasonality research and holiday market coverage include the Stock Trader's Almanac, Investopedia seasonal summaries, brokerage research notes, Schaeffer's Investment Research seasonality reports, Bespoke Investment Group analyses, Morningstar holiday coverage, and index provider data (S&P, NASDAQ). Relevant data is usually obtained from index providers, FactSet, and research databases.

As of January 15, 2026, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the Santa Claus Rally historically produced an average S&P 500 gain in the range cited above and showed positive returns in a majority of years in long samples. For up‑to‑date company specifics (sales, market cap, trading volume), consult filings, company releases, and market data terminals.

See also

• Seasonal investing
• Santa Claus Rally
• Retail sales (seasonally adjusted)
• ETFs and sector funds
• Options strategies
• January Barometer

Practical closing and next steps

If you searched for what stocks go up during christmas to position for the season, keep the following pragmatic points in mind:

• Seasonal patterns are helpful context but not guarantees; pair calendar signals with fundamentals and liquidity checks.
• For broad exposure consider large ETFs (SPY, QQQ) or sector ETFs (consumer discretionary, retail) to reduce single‑name risk.
• If you trade single names, focus on firms with clear holiday exposure, healthy inventories, and strong omnichannel fulfillment.

Explore Bitget’s educational materials and trading tools for portfolio construction and risk controls. If you use a Web3 wallet, consider Bitget Wallet for custody and interaction with the broader digital asset ecosystem. Always verify tax, settlement and regulatory considerations for your jurisdiction and consult licensed advisors for personalized advice.

Further reading: consult the Stock Trader's Almanac, Investopedia seasonal articles, and brokerage research that covers holiday sales metrics and Santa Claus Rally history.

Notes on sources and timeliness:

• As of January 15, 2026, the Stock Trader's Almanac and Investopedia provided the historical summaries referenced above. Additional seasonality statistics may vary by index provider and sample period.
• Company market‑cap, daily trading volume, and other quantitative metrics are available from market data providers and company filings; verify values on your trading platform before placing orders.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Consider consulting a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.