Event Review 📈
Recently, Ethereum reached an important technological milestone—the Fusaka upgrade. This upgrade mainly focuses on network scaling, reducing Layer 2 costs, and enhancing decentralization, sending a positive signal of “secure scaling” and boosting institutional and long-term investors’ confidence in the future of the Ethereum ecosystem. With the official announcement of the upgrade, the market reacted sharply in a very short time: ETH prices surged rapidly, followed by some profit-taking adjustments. Overall, this wave of market movement fully reflects the dual response to technological progress and expectations of macroeconomic easing policies.
Timeline ⏰
- 22:33 – Ethereum officially announced the launch of the Fusaka upgrade, sending a positive signal of scaling and cost reduction.
- 22:35 – The market responded swiftly to the upgrade news, with ETH prices soaring from the initial $3054 to $3139, an increase of about 2.78%.
- 22:35～22:46 – During a brief period of volatility, the price edged up from around $3120 to $3122, indicating gradual profit-taking.
- 22:41 – A key support level was broken, with prices on some exchanges (such as OKX) reaching $3112, confirming active buying in the market.
- 23:11 – As profit-taking set in, ETH adjusted to $3089.37, with a short-term pullback following the sharp rise.
Reason Analysis 🔍
Technological Upgrade Dividend
The launch of the Fusaka upgrade has laid a solid foundation for Ethereum’s future development. Measures to scale the network and reduce Layer 2 fees not only optimize user experience but also enhance the ecosystem’s competitiveness. This milestone event provides ample investment confidence for institutions and long-term capital, serving as a key internal driver for the rapid price surge.Macro Easing and Improved Liquidity
With weakening economic data and rising expectations of interest rate cuts, overall market liquidity has improved. The loose macro monetary environment has stimulated demand for risk asset allocation, accelerating capital flows from traditional assets to digital assets. Against this backdrop, not only Ethereum but the entire crypto market has benefited from the alternating entry of institutional and retail funds.Trading Sentiment and Liquidation Effect
Data shows that, within a short period, total liquidations across the network reached tens of millions of dollars, with a high proportion of short positions, indicating that short-term market arbitrage and profit-taking were very evident. Meanwhile, net inflows from major players reached several million dollars, also indicating that institutions were actively positioning near key support levels, providing important support for the market outlook.
Technical Analysis 📊
This round of market movement is technically analyzed based on Binance USDT perpetual contract ETH/USDT 45-minute candlestick data:
- Indicator Overbought Signal: The %B indicator broke above 0.8, with the price approaching the upper band, indicating the market is in an overbought zone in the short term.
- Trend Indicators: The KDJ indicator shows signs of divergence, with downward momentum increasing, suggesting short-term pullback pressure; meanwhile, the OBV indicator broke previous highs, indicating that buying power is still accumulating.
- Trading Volume Activity: Recently, trading volume surged by 102.59%, and trading volume, short-term average volume, and long-term average volume are all in a bullish arrangement. This shows that buying is active, the market’s short-term bullish signals are obvious, but there is also a high risk of volatility.
- Moving Average Arrangement: The price remains firmly above the MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, and EMA5 to EMA120 moving averages, with a clear bullish structure, proving a strong upward trend in the short and medium term; meanwhile, EMA24 is above EMA52, and the upward slope also supports a medium-term bullish outlook.
Market Outlook 🌟
Although ETH experienced a sharp surge and volatility after the event announcement, some short-term profit-taking has already emerged. Future trends may develop along the following paths:
- Short-term Correction Risk: With overbought signals and clear signs of profit-taking, the market may experience sideways movement or a slight pullback in the short term. Investors should pay attention to changes in key support and resistance levels and set reasonable take-profit and stop-loss points.
- Medium- to Long-term Upward Expectation: Based on the long-term positive effects of the Fusaka upgrade and the support of macro easing policies for risk assets, institutional investors remain optimistic about ETH’s long-term prospects. If the price stabilizes after the adjustment and attracts further capital inflow, it is expected to continue rising.
- Market Volatility Remains High: High trading volume, liquidation effects, and rapid inflows and outflows of institutional funds mean the market remains highly volatile. Investors are advised to monitor overall market liquidity and policy trends, maintaining a cautiously optimistic attitude.
Driven by both technological upgrades and policy easing, Ethereum’s future is full of opportunities, but high volatility risks cannot be ignored. Timely technical adjustments and risk management remain the core strategies for investors at this stage.
