Fed Rate Cut Almost Certain; Market Focuses on Voting Divergence and Powell’s Wording

Jinse Finance reported that this week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting is expected to be one of the most controversial in years. Investors are focusing on how divided policymakers are regarding rate cuts and the signals Powell will send about the future path. Janus Henderson believes that in the long term, the December meeting will have little impact on the market. There may be some volatility in the short term, but actions in the first half of 2026 are more important than those in December. Wilmington Trust believes that the market has largely priced in the Fed's rate cut actions, and the real key is the Fed's policy guidance. It is expected that they will be very cautious, emphasizing that decisions depend on economic data. Some observers believe that the probability of a Fed rate cut is not as high as the market suggests, and they are more concerned about Powell's statement and how close the policy vote will be. Nomura economists pointed out that nothing is certain yet, and the market is underestimating the risk that the Fed may choose not to cut rates in December. In the event of a rate cut decision, the number of dissenting votes will be very interesting. With the rotation of four regional Fed presidents, their stances will reveal how much independence they intend to maintain and how much pressure they will put on the Fed. (Golden Ten Data)