Interpretation of the CoinShares 2026 Report: Farewell to Speculative Narratives, Embracing the First Year of Practicality

Original Title: Outlook 2026 The year utility wins

Original Source: CoinShares

Original Translation: TechFlow

At the end of the year, annual review and outlook reports from various institutions are being released one after another.

Following the principle of "too long; didn't read," we also attempt to quickly summarize and distill the lengthy reports from each institution.

This report comes from CoinShares, a leading European digital asset investment management company founded in 2014, headquartered in London, UK, and Paris, France, with over $6 billion in assets under management.

This 77-page report, "Outlook 2026: The Year Utility Wins," covers core topics such as macroeconomic fundamentals, bitcoin mainstream adoption, the rise of hybrid finance, competition among smart contract platforms, and the evolution of regulatory landscapes. It also provides in-depth analysis of sub-sectors including stablecoins, tokenized assets, prediction markets, mining transformation, and venture capital.

The following is our distilled summary of the core content of this report:

I. Core Theme: The Arrival of the Year of Utility

2025 is a turning point for the digital asset industry, with bitcoin reaching all-time highs and the industry shifting from speculation-driven to utility-driven value.

2026 is expected to be "the year utility wins," with digital assets no longer attempting to replace the traditional financial system, but rather to enhance and modernize existing systems.

The core view of the report is: 2025 marks a decisive shift in digital assets from speculation-driven to utility-driven value, and 2026 will be a key year for the acceleration and implementation of this transformation.

Digital assets are no longer trying to build a parallel financial system, but are enhancing and modernizing the existing traditional financial system. The integration of public blockchains, institutional liquidity, regulated market structures, and real economic use cases is advancing at a pace exceeding optimistic expectations.

II. Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Market Outlook

Economic Environment: Soft Landing on Thin Ice

Growth expectations: The economy may avoid recession in 2026, but growth will be weak and fragile. Inflation continues to ease but not decisively, while tariff disruptions and supply chain restructuring keep core inflation at its highest since the early 1990s.

Federal Reserve policy: Cautious rate cuts are expected, with the target rate possibly dropping to the mid-3% range, but the process will be slow. The Fed remains wary of the 2022 inflation surge and is reluctant to pivot quickly.

Three scenario analyses:

· Optimistic scenario: Soft landing + productivity surprise, bitcoin could break $150,000

· Baseline scenario: Slow expansion, bitcoin trades in the $110,000–$140,000 range

· Bearish scenario: Recession or stagflation, bitcoin could fall to the $70,000–$100,000 range

The Slow Erosion of the Dollar's Reserve Status

The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen from 70% in 2000 to the mid-50% range today. Emerging market central banks are diversifying, increasing holdings of RMB, gold, and other assets. This creates a structural tailwind for bitcoin as a non-sovereign store of value.

III. The Mainstreaming of Bitcoin in the United States

2025 saw several key breakthroughs in the US, including:

· Approval and launch of spot ETFs

· Formation of top-tier ETF options markets

· Lifting of retirement plan restrictions

· Application of fair value accounting rules for corporations

· US government listing bitcoin as a strategic reserve

Institutional Adoption Still in Early Stages

Although structural barriers have been removed, actual adoption is still limited by traditional financial processes and intermediaries. Wealth management channels, retirement plan providers, and corporate compliance teams are still gradually adapting.

2026 Expectations

The private sector is expected to make key progress: the four major brokerages will open up bitcoin ETF allocations, at least one major 401(k) provider will allow bitcoin allocations, at least two S&P 500 companies will hold bitcoin, and at least two major custodian banks will offer direct custody services, among others.

IV. Risks of Bitcoin Holdings by Miners and Corporations

Corporate Bitcoin Holdings Surge

From 2024 to 2025, publicly listed companies' bitcoin holdings rose from 266,000 to 1,048,000 coins, with total value increasing from $11.7 billion to $90.7 billion. MicroStrategy (MSTR) accounts for 61%, and the top 10 companies control 84%.

Potential Sell-off Risks

MicroStrategy faces two major risks:

· Inability to fund perpetual debt and cash flow obligations (annual cash flow nearly $680 million)

· Refinancing risk (next bond maturity in September 2028)

If mNAV approaches 1x or refinancing at zero interest is not possible, they may be forced to sell bitcoin, triggering a vicious cycle.

Options Market and Declining Volatility

The development of the IBIT options market has reduced bitcoin volatility, a sign of market maturity. However, declining volatility may weaken demand for convertible bonds and affect corporate purchasing power. The spring of 2025 saw a turning point in volatility decline.

V. Divergence in Regulatory Landscapes

EU: Clarity from MiCA

The EU has the world's most comprehensive legal framework for crypto assets, covering issuance, custody, trading, and stablecoins. However, 2025 exposed coordination limitations, and some national regulators may challenge cross-border passporting.

US: Innovation and Fragmentation

The US has regained momentum thanks to its deep capital markets and mature venture capital ecosystem, but regulation remains fragmented across the SEC, CFTC, Federal Reserve, and others. Stablecoin legislation (GENIUS Act) has passed, but implementation is ongoing.

Asia: Moving Toward Prudent Regulation

Hong Kong, Japan, and others are advancing Basel III crypto capital and liquidity requirements, while Singapore maintains a risk-based licensing regime. Asia is forming a more coherent regulatory bloc, converging around risk-based and bank-aligned standards.

The Rise of Hybrid Finance (HyFi)

Infrastructure and Settlement Layer

Stablecoins: The market exceeds $300 billion, with Ethereum holding the largest share and Solana growing the fastest. The GENIUS Act requires compliant issuers to hold US Treasury reserves, creating new demand for Treasuries.

Decentralized exchanges: Monthly trading volumes exceed $60 billion, with Solana processing $40 billion in daily trading volume.

Tokenized Real World Assets (RWA)

The total value of tokenized assets rose from $15 billion at the start of 2025 to $35 billion. Private credit and US Treasury tokenization are growing fastest, and gold tokens exceed $1.3 billion. BlackRock's BUIDL fund assets have expanded significantly, and JPMorgan launched JPMD tokenized deposits on Base.

Revenue-Generating On-Chain Applications

More and more protocols are generating hundreds of millions of dollars in annual revenue and distributing it to token holders. Hyperliquid uses 99% of its revenue for daily token buybacks, and Uniswap and Lido have launched similar mechanisms. This marks the shift of tokens from pure speculative assets to equity-like assets.

VII. The Dominance of Stablecoins and Corporate Adoption

Market Concentration

Tether (USDT) accounts for 60% of the stablecoin market, and Circle (USDC) for 25%. New entrants like PayPal's PYUSD face network effect challenges and struggle to shake the duopoly.

2026 Corporate Adoption Expectations

Payment processors: Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, etc., have structural advantages and can shift to stablecoin settlement without changing the front-end experience.

Banks: JPMorgan's JPM Coin has demonstrated potential, with Siemens reporting 50% savings on FX and settlement times reduced from days to seconds.

E-commerce platforms: Shopify already accepts USDC at checkout, and stablecoin supplier payments are being piloted in Asia and Latin America.

Revenue Impact

Stablecoin issuers face interest rate decline risk: if the Fed rate drops to 3%, $88.7 billion in new stablecoins would need to be issued to maintain current interest income.

VIII. Analyzing Exchange Competition with Porter's Five Forces

Existing competitors: Competition is fierce and intensifying, with fee rates dropping to low single-digit basis points.

Threat of new entrants: Traditional financial institutions like Morgan Stanley E*TRADE and Charles Schwab are preparing to enter, but will need to rely on partners in the short term.

Bargaining power of suppliers: Stablecoin issuers (such as Circle) are enhancing control through Arc mainnet. The USDC revenue-sharing agreement between Coinbase and Circle is crucial.

Bargaining power of customers: Institutional clients account for over 80% of Coinbase trading volume and have strong bargaining power. Retail users are price sensitive.

Threat of substitutes: Decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid, prediction markets like Polymarket, and CME crypto derivatives all pose competition.

Industry consolidation is expected to accelerate in 2026, with exchanges and large banks acquiring customers, licenses, and infrastructure through M&A.

IX. Competition Among Smart Contract Platforms

Ethereum: From Sandbox to Institutional Infrastructure

Ethereum has scaled through a rollup-centric roadmap, with Layer-2 throughput rising from 200 TPS a year ago to 4,800 TPS. Validators are pushing to raise the base layer gas limit. The US spot Ethereum ETF has attracted about $13 billion in inflows.

In institutional tokenization, BlackRock's BUIDL fund and JPMorgan's JPMD demonstrate Ethereum's potential as an institutional-grade platform.

Solana: The High-Performance Paradigm

Solana stands out with its highly optimized monolithic execution environment, accounting for about 7% of total DeFi TVL. Stablecoin supply exceeds $12 billion (up from $1.8 billion in January 2024), RWA projects are expanding, and BlackRock's BUIDL grew from $25 million in September to $250 million.

Technical upgrades include the Firedancer client and DoubleZero validator communication network. The spot ETF launched on October 28 has already attracted $382 million in net inflows.

Other High-Performance Chains

New-generation Layer-1s such as Sui, Aptos, Sei, Monad, and Hyperliquid are competing through architectural differentiation. Hyperliquid focuses on derivatives trading, accounting for over one-third of total blockchain revenue. However, the market is highly fragmented, and EVM compatibility is becoming a key competitive advantage.

X. Mining Transformation to HPC (High-Performance Computing Centers)

2025 Expansion

Publicly listed miners' hash rate grew by 110 EH/s, mainly from Bitdeer, HIVE Digital, and Iris Energy.

HPC Transformation

Miners have announced $65 billion worth of HPC contracts, and by the end of 2026, bitcoin mining revenue is expected to fall from 85% to below 20% of total revenue. HPC business operating margins reach 80–90%.

Future Mining Models

Future mining is expected to be dominated by the following models: ASIC manufacturers, modular mining, intermittent mining (coexisting with HPC), and sovereign nation mining. In the long run, mining may return to small-scale, decentralized operations.

XI. Venture Capital Trends

2025 Recovery

Crypto venture funding reached $18.8 billion, surpassing the full year of 2024 ($16.5 billion). This was mainly driven by large deals: Polymarket received $2 billion in strategic investment (ICE), Stripe's Tempo received $500 million, and Kalshi received $300 million.

Four Major Trends for 2026

RWA tokenization: Securitize's SPAC and Agora's $50 million Series A round show institutional interest.

AI and crypto integration: Applications such as AI agents and natural language trading interfaces are accelerating.

Retail investment platforms: Decentralized angel investment platforms like Echo (acquired by Coinbase for $375 million) and Legion are emerging.

Bitcoin infrastructure: Layer-2 and Lightning Network-related projects are gaining attention.

XII. The Rise of Prediction Markets

During the 2024 US election, Polymarket's weekly trading volume exceeded $800 million, and post-election activity remained strong. Its prediction accuracy has been validated: events with a 60% probability occurred about 60% of the time, and those with an 80% probability occurred about 77–82% of the time.

In October 2025, ICE made a strategic investment of up to $2 billion in Polymarket, marking recognition from mainstream financial institutions. Weekly trading volume could exceed $2 billion in 2026.

XIII. Key Conclusions

Accelerated maturation: Digital assets are shifting from speculation-driven to utility and cash flow-driven, with tokens increasingly resembling equity assets.

The rise of hybrid finance: The integration of public blockchains and traditional financial systems is no longer theoretical, but is becoming visible through the strong growth of stablecoins, tokenized assets, and on-chain applications.

Improved regulatory clarity: The US GENIUS Act, EU MiCA, and Asia's prudent regulatory frameworks are laying the foundation for institutional adoption.

Gradual institutional adoption: Although structural barriers have been removed, actual adoption will take years, and 2026 will be a year of incremental progress for the private sector.

Reshaping the competitive landscape: Ethereum remains dominant but faces challenges from high-performance chains like Solana, with EVM compatibility becoming a key advantage.

Risks and opportunities coexist: High corporate concentration of bitcoin holdings brings sell-off risk, but emerging areas such as institutional tokenization, stablecoin adoption, and prediction markets offer huge growth potential.

Overall, 2026 will be a pivotal year for digital assets to move from the margins to the mainstream, from speculation to utility, and from fragmentation to integration.

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