Carnival Corporation Stock Forecast: Are Analysts Optimistic or Pessimistic?

Carnival Corporation & plc: Global Cruise Leader

Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL), valued at $33.3 billion, stands as a major player in the global cruise industry. The company delivers leisure travel experiences across regions including North America, Australia, Europe, and other international markets. With a diverse portfolio of cruise brands and travel-related businesses, Carnival offers vacation packages and cruise adventures through a variety of global sales channels.

Stock Performance Overview

Over the past year, Carnival’s stock performance has trailed the broader market. While CCL shares have risen by 12.8% in the last 52 weeks, the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has climbed 13.9% during the same period. Year-to-date, Carnival’s stock has declined by 6.1%, whereas the S&P 500 has posted a 1.5% gain.

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Despite lagging the broader market, Carnival’s stock has outperformed the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY), which returned 6.4% over the past year.

Financial Highlights and Outlook

Although Carnival’s Q3 2025 revenue of $6.33 billion fell short of expectations, the company’s shares soared 9.8% on December 19. This surge was fueled by adjusted earnings per share of $0.34, which significantly surpassed analyst forecasts, and adjusted net income of $454 million—over $150 million above guidance. The strong performance was attributed to robust last-minute demand and effective cost management. Investors were further encouraged by record full-year 2025 results, including $3.1 billion in adjusted net income and $7.2 billion in adjusted EBITDA. The company’s positive outlook for 2026, projecting $3.5 billion in adjusted net income, higher net yields, and record bookings at premium prices, also boosted confidence.

Looking ahead to the fiscal year ending November 2026, analysts anticipate a 12.9% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS, reaching $2.54. Carnival has consistently exceeded consensus earnings estimates for the past four quarters.

Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

Out of 25 analysts covering Carnival, the consensus is overwhelmingly positive, with 18 rating the stock as a “Strong Buy,” one as a “Moderate Buy,” and six recommending “Hold.”

On January 6, Bernstein raised its price target for Carnival to $33, maintaining a “Market Perform” rating. The average price target stands at $37.83, suggesting a 31.9% premium over the current share price. The highest analyst target of $46 implies a potential upside of 60.4%.