SpaceX going public might trigger a wave of similar moves — meanwhile, secondary market activity is surging

SpaceX Eyes 2026 IPO: What It Means for Private Markets

SpaceX is reportedly working with several leading Wall Street banks in preparation for a possible initial public offering in 2026. This move could mark a significant shift for the public markets, which have seen few IPOs in recent years.

While waiting for a public debut, late-stage private companies like SpaceX are turning to the rapidly expanding secondary market to provide liquidity for employees and early investors.

To better understand the implications of a potential SpaceX IPO, the mechanics of private liquidity, and what investors seek in today’s pre-IPO giants, we interviewed Greg Martin, managing director at Rainmaker Securities, a firm specializing in secondary transactions for mature private companies.

You can listen to the full discussion on your favorite podcast platform or read the highlights below.

This interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.

Introducing Greg Martin

Greg Martin is the founder and managing director of Rainmaker Securities, which facilitates secondary share transactions for large, late-stage private companies. He also founded Archer Capital Group, which acquires private company shares, and co-founded Liquid Stock, a company that helps employees and executives leverage their stock options.

The Boom in Secondary Markets Amid IPO Slowdown

With IPOs on hold, private companies are remaining private for much longer than in the past. Many, including SpaceX, would have gone public years ago under previous market conditions. These businesses play a major role in the economy, and there is strong investor demand for access. At the same time, long-term shareholders and founders are eager to realize some of the value tied up in their equity. This dynamic has fueled a thriving secondary market, a trend that is likely to continue as more market capitalization remains in private hands.

Will Secondary Markets Change if IPOs Resume?

When a company like SpaceX goes public, it represents a massive shift of capital from private to public markets. However, this transition also tends to increase interest in private market liquidity and attracts more investors to the space. The rise of fast-growing companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic, now valued at over a trillion dollars combined, underscores the ongoing opportunity in private secondary markets. The eventual public listing of SpaceX could further boost interest in private companies among capital market participants.

SpaceX’s IPO: A Potential Market Catalyst

The IPO market has been sluggish since 2021, and investors are eagerly awaiting a high-profile company to lead the way. SpaceX fits this role perfectly, drawing significant attention. The company recently completed a tender offer at an $800 billion valuation, and Rainmaker’s platform continues to see strong demand for SpaceX shares. Other sought-after companies include ByteDance, Stripe, Databricks, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Perplexity, but SpaceX remains the focal point. If SpaceX goes public this year, it could reset the IPO landscape.

Trends in Secondary Market Bidding

SpaceX has consistently attracted investor interest, even during market downturns in 2022 and 2023. Each time rumors of a public offering surface, the company’s share price climbs. Currently, bids are coming in at higher valuations than the last tender, approaching the $1.5 trillion figure discussed as a possible IPO price.

Elon Musk’s Shift on Going Public

Although Elon Musk previously stated he would not take SpaceX public until regular Mars flights were underway, his position appears to have evolved. The current market environment is strong, and while SpaceX has seen robust private market demand, access is limited. Going public would open the company to a broader investor base and provide additional capital to support its ambitious projects, including Starlink, Starship, and even space-based data centers.

National Security and Public Markets

Opening up to public investors could introduce new risks, particularly regarding national security. If SpaceX pursues an IPO, it may only offer a small percentage of shares—perhaps around 5%. Public disclosure would make ownership transparent, and control would likely remain with Elon Musk and his close associates. The main concern would be whether foreign investors could exert any real influence, but economic interests alone are generally manageable.

Competition and Market Timing

SpaceX’s achievements are inspiring competitors. Jeff Bezos is developing a communications network to rival Starlink, and OpenAI faces its own capital challenges. For AI companies, going public makes sense given their high capital requirements and strong investor interest. SpaceX, however, can afford to be more selective about timing, given its profitability and leadership in key sectors. If market conditions worsen, the company may choose to remain private.

Challenges and the “Elon Effect”

SpaceX faces technical hurdles, such as difficulties with the Starship V3 and recent rocket explosions. However, Elon Musk’s reputation tends to boost investor confidence and stock prices. SpaceX is expected to command a premium valuation, thanks in part to Musk’s track record with vertically integrated companies like Tesla and his ambitious vision for the future—including space-based data centers powered by solar energy.

Balancing Vision and Reality

While Musk is known for bold promises, some of his more ambitious projects remain unrealized or have been outpaced by competitors. Investors will need to weigh the risks of betting on a single visionary leader to continually deliver outsized results.

Significance of SpaceX’s IPO Preparations

SpaceX’s engagement with major banks is a strong indicator of serious IPO intentions. However, discussions alone do not guarantee an imminent public offering. Other signs to watch for include hiring executives with public company experience, expanding investor relations, and strengthening accounting and legal teams. SpaceX already operates with a public-company caliber team, so changes may be subtle.

Comparing Private and Public Valuations

Private companies benefit from gauging investor demand before going public. Relying solely on a brief marketing period can lead to mispricing, as seen with Figma’s 200% post-IPO surge. By facilitating secondary trading, companies can achieve better price discovery and attract a broader investor base, resulting in a more efficient IPO process.

How Secondary Transactions Work for Employees

Not all private companies handle secondary sales the same way. SpaceX tightly controls its cap table to avoid exceeding the shareholder limit that would require public reporting. The company typically conducts two or three tender offers annually, providing some liquidity for employees. Additionally, many transactions occur through special purpose vehicles (SPVs), allowing economic ownership to change hands without altering the official cap table. Some companies permit direct share trading, while others prohibit it entirely. Firms like Rainmaker help navigate these processes and provide liquidity solutions for both sellers and investors.

Information Access in Secondary Markets

Access to information is a key challenge for secondary market investors. Rainmaker works with companies to provide data rooms and conducts independent research on publicly available information. While they cannot share confidential company data without permission, increased transparency helps reduce investor risk and encourages market participation. However, private companies remain cautious about what they disclose.

What Sophisticated Investors Seek in Pre-IPO Shares

Experienced investors conduct thorough due diligence, examining financials, management, cap table structure, outstanding shares, preferences, and debt. Understanding supply and demand dynamics is also crucial. Investors are generally more comfortable with well-known private companies like SpaceX, even if full financial details are unavailable.

Demand for Secondary Shares in Other Unicorns

Interest in secondary shares remains strong for companies such as Databricks, Stripe, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and ByteDance. The AI sector, including firms like Lambda Labs and Cohere, continues to attract significant attention. As more companies signal plans to go public—like Discord, Motive, and Canva—liquidity increases and trading activity grows. Rainmaker’s platform regularly sees trading in 20 to 30 companies, and as the IPO market reopens, this number is expected to rise. In 2021, hundreds of companies were traded, and last year, Rainmaker facilitated over $1 billion in secondary transactions.

Connect with Greg Martin

You can find Greg Martin on LinkedIn.