Wintermute: $85,000 has become a key resistance level during bitcoin's decline

ChainCatcher reported that Bitcoin has fallen below the $80,000 mark. Wintermute had previously identified $85,000 as the key pivot level for the market direction this quarter, but this level failed to provide support and instead became the ceiling for the price decline. Bitcoin subsequently touched $75,700.

Wintermute's analysis pointed out that this drop marks the market's entry into a period of extreme fear, with sentiment dominated by deleveraging and the liquidation of high-beta speculative positions. Wintermute believes that the traditional four-year halving cycle has become ineffective amid institutionalization, and the crypto economic structure is shifting towards a walled garden model, with liquidity concentrated in spot ETFs and large-cap assets backed by digital asset treasuries.

The average duration of altcoin rebounds has compressed from 60 days in 2024 to 20 days by early 2026. Wintermute listed three main variables for market recovery: institutional mandates expanding to assets such as Solana and XRP, continued Bitcoin appreciation generating a wealth effect, and the return of retail interest. Wintermute emphasized that a true reversal may depend more on Federal Reserve policy than on crypto industry narratives.