Bitget UEX Daily | Software Sector Rebounds; Meta AMD Signs Massive Chip Deal; HP Drops Over 6% After Hours; Circle Set to Release Earnings (February 25, 2026)

一、Key Headlines

Federal Reserve Developments

Fed Officials Speak Out: AI May Push Neutral Rate Higher

• Multiple Fed governors and presidents addressed labor market and inflation outlook: Governor Cook noted AI is triggering generational shifts that could raise the neutral rate in the short term and add inflation risks; Collins expects inflation to moderate later this year; Goolsbee stressed more evidence is needed to confirm sustained disinflation before further rate cuts. Market Impact: Rate-cut expectations are now firmly anchored to June-July, supporting the dollar, pressuring short-term Treasury yields lower, and keeping volatility elevated across risk assets.

International Commodities

Global Oil Tanker Freight Rates Surge to Near Six-Year High

• VLCC rates for Middle East-to-China routes have exceeded $170,000 per day, tripling from the start of the year; U.S.-Iran talks, supply shifts, and heavy Korean ship ordering are driving the spike, the highest since April 2020. Market Impact: Rising transport costs will pass through to end-user oil prices, providing short-term support for WTI and Brent, though successful negotiations could ease the geopolitical premium.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump to Announce in State of the Union: Tech Giants to Cover AI Data-Center Energy Costs

• The administration has reached agreements with several major unnamed tech companies to have them bear a larger share of data-center power and infrastructure expenses, shielding consumers from soaring electricity bills; ADP data showed private payrolls averaging +12,750 jobs per week over the past four weeks — the fourth straight improvement but still well below late-2025 peaks. Market Impact: The move eases fiscal and household pressure while raising capex costs for tech, making the sustainability of the AI investment boom a fresh market focus.

二、Market Review

Commodities FX Performance

• Spot Gold: +0.18% at $5,153/oz, remaining in an uptrend channel
• Spot Silver: +0.2% at $87.42/oz
• WTI Crude: +0.72% at $66.11/bbl — geopolitical talks balanced by higher freight rates
• U.S. Dollar Index: -0.07% at 97.83, supported by cautious Fed rhetoric

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: -1.05% near $64,189, testing support after four straight down days
• ETH: -0.7% near $1,850, beta effect amplifying the move
• Total Crypto Market Cap: +0.2% to $2.29 trillion, risk appetite still subdued
• Liquidations: $340 million total, with longs dominating at ~$249 million

U.S. Equity Indices

• Dow Jones: +0.76% at 49,174.5 points, extending rebound
• SP 500: +0.77% at 6,890.07 points, led by software and tech
• Nasdaq: +1.04% at 22,863.68 points, driven by AI application software

Tech Giants Performance

• AAPL: +2%+, boosted by touchscreen MacBook Pro launch rumors for this fall
• AMZN: +1%+, supported by broad tech sentiment
• GOOGL: -0.19%, offset by 20-year power deal with AES to support global cloud and AI expansion (long-term positive)
• META: Strong gains, directly catalyzed by the massive AMD chip deal
• MSFT: +1%+, riding software sector recovery
• NVDA: +0.68%, pre-earnings caution
• TSLA: +2%+, benefiting from sector rotation Core Driver: Anthropic’s briefing signaled “cooperation, not replacement,” easing software-stock fears and combining with the landmark Meta-AMD deal to lift AI infrastructure sentiment.

Sector Rotation Highlights

Software / AI Application Sector — Leading gains

• Key stocks: Figma +11%, Roblox +7%, Salesforce +4%
• Driver: Anthropic launched enterprise agents in partnership with legacy software firms; Wedbush and others argue AI substitution risk to existing workflows has been overstated.

Storage / Memory Sector — Notable weakness

• Key stocks: SanDisk (SNDK) -4.2%, Micron soft, HPQ -5.75%+ after hours
• Driver: Citron Research initiated short, arguing the market is mispricing cyclical NAND as permanent AI moat; Samsung capacity recovery expected to ease shortages; HPQ cited rising memory costs dragging guidance.

三、In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Meta Platforms — Massive “Chip + Equity” Deal with AMD

Event Summary: Meta signed a multi-year agreement to deploy up to 6 GW of AMD Instinct GPUs (≈$60 billion order value). Meta also receives warrants to purchase up to 160 million AMD shares at $0.01 each (≈10% equity), vesting on shipment milestones. First deliveries start H2 2026 using custom MI450 GPUs and Venice CPUs. Market View: Institutions see this as AMD accelerating its catch-up to Nvidia in AI chips; equity alignment strengthens strategic ties and eases long-term competitiveness concerns. Investment Insight: Clear trend toward diversified AI capex spending; second-tier chip makers like AMD have valuation-repair upside — watch the full supply-chain beneficiaries.

2. AMD — $60 Billion Meta Chip Order + Equity Tie-In

Event Summary: Same deal details; AMD shares surged as much as 8.77% intraday and closed near highs. Market View: Wall Street views this as AMD’s second “Nvidia-scale” mega-deal; performance-based warrants link revenue and stock price for greater certainty. Investment Insight: Strong near-term catalyst; monitor actual shipment progress for longer-term positioning in AI hardware.

3. HP Inc — Q1 Beat but Memory Costs Weigh on Outlook

Event Summary: FY2026 Q1 revenue $14.44 billion (+6.9% YoY) beat estimates; Q2 non-GAAP EPS guide $0.70–0.76 (midpoint below $0.75 consensus). Full-year guide maintained but expected to trend toward low end. CFO cited persistent memory price inflation. Shares fell >6% after hours. Market View: Analysts trimmed near-term earnings; cyclical cost pressure outweighs demand recovery. Investment Insight: PC/printing fundamentals remain solid — watch for memory price inflection; suitable for tactical trading.

4. Alibaba — Tongyi Qwen 3.5 Medium Model Series Launched

Event Summary: Qwen team released Qwen 3.5 mid-size series (Flash, 35B-A3B, 122B-A10B, 27B etc.) using hybrid architecture with far lower active parameters, superior agent performance vs prior generation, and 1-million-token context. Market View: Open-source + efficiency approach strengthens domestic AI edge and cost advantage. Investment Insight: Faster rollout of AI applications in China; long-term focus on Alibaba Cloud and ecosystem plays.

5. Circle — Leading Stablecoin Issuer Q4 Earnings Due

Event Summary: Circle (CRCL) will report Q4 and full-year 2025 results pre-market on Feb 25; USDC circulation has more than doubled to over $74 billion. Market View: Focus on how rate environment affects reserve income and whether payments growth can offset it. Investment Insight: Stablecoin ecosystem expansion remains intact — track USDC market share and revenue diversification.

四、24-Hour Crypto Project Highlights

1. Circle Q4 earnings imminent; USDC circulation continues doubling.
2. Analysis: Bitcoin “fair-value gap” points to $45,000; AI concerns weigh on stocks and gold.
3. Bitwise acquires staking provider Chorus One, strengthening multi-chain staking footprint.
4. Ethereum DeFi TVL sees modest recovery but remains under pressure.
5. 21Shares spot SUI ETF now trading on Nasdaq.

五、Today’s Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Key Events to Watch

• Circle Earnings: Pre-market — USDC circulation payments progress
• NVIDIA Earnings: After close — Critical AI demand validation
• Trump State of the Union: Evening ET — AI energy policy details

Bitget Research View: U.S. software stocks rebounded sharply after Anthropic’s briefing, with the three major indices rising as the market quickly embraced the “cooperation, not disruption” narrative. The landmark $60 billion Meta-AMD deal further boosted chip supply-chain confidence, yet multiple Fed officials signaled possible upward pressure on the neutral rate, making the rate-cut path more cautious. Precious metals and oil found support from geopolitics and freight rates, while the dollar edged higher. Overall, institutions view the current rebound as technical rather than a trend reversal. Investors should focus on NVIDIA earnings and Trump’s energy policy details for risk-appetite guidance; volatility is likely to stay elevated in the near term. Balanced allocation between AI hardware and defensive assets remains prudent.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, manually verified and published only, and does not constitute any investment advice.