Bear of the Day: AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)

AST SpaceMobile Q4 Earnings Preview

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is set to announce its fourth-quarter results after the market closes today. According to the Zacks consensus from five analysts, revenue is projected to reach $40.7 million, which would mark a remarkable 2,020% increase compared to the same period last year.

On the earnings side, analysts anticipate a loss per share of $0.18, which is 50% higher than the loss reported a year ago.

Despite these impressive revenue projections, ASTS recently dropped to the lowest Zacks Rank. This downgrade was driven by a downward revision in full-year 2026 estimates, with expected losses widening from $0.74 to $0.90 per share in recent weeks.

Company Overview

Earlier this year, AST SpaceMobile was highlighted as a bearish pick when the stock was approaching a potential double-top near $100. The shares later surged above $120 in January but ended last week below $80.

AST SpaceMobile is developing the first global space-based cellular broadband network that connects directly to standard smartphones. Their SpaceMobile Service will utilize a network of advanced, large phased-array satellites in low Earth orbit, leveraging low and mid-band spectrums managed by Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) to provide coverage in regions without traditional infrastructure.

From the company: “Our BlueBird satellites deliver full broadband access directly to regular smartphones, with no need for special devices or modifications. Users can make video calls, browse, and use apps at 4G and 5G speeds from anywhere on the planet.”

To achieve this, AST SpaceMobile has joined forces with over 50 mobile network operators, aiming to integrate seamlessly with terrestrial networks and provide service to nearly 3 billion users worldwide.

Why the Zacks #5 Rank?

Following a significant earnings miss in Q3, profit expectations for 2025 were reduced by 18%, from a loss of $0.90 to $1.06 per share. The 2026 outlook was also revised downward, from a loss of $0.63 to $0.74 per share. The Zacks Rank is determined solely by changes in earnings estimates, which have been trending negatively for ASTS.

Another concern for investors is valuation. While revenue projections for 2025 jumped from $4 million to nearly $55 million, and this year’s revenue is expected to climb 376% to $261 million, the stock’s price soared to October highs near $100. This pushed the price-to-sales ratio to an extremely high 138, based on a $36 billion market cap. To bring this ratio closer to Palantir’s (PLTR) level of 70, ASTS would need to double its sales.

Recent Developments

As of March, ASTS faces a new challenge: growth forecasts have been scaled back. The latest Zacks consensus now expects just over $200 million in revenue, which still represents a robust 250% increase. However, with the market cap now at $29 billion, the price-to-sales ratio has climbed even higher to 145, making the stock more expensive than when it traded at $100.

Conclusion

If ASTS can deliver a strong quarter with impressive results, guidance, and new customer wins, bullish investors may push the stock higher. However, the company will need to justify its lofty valuation with substantial performance and outlook improvements.

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Additional Resources