Morgan Stanley: Maintains a constructive outlook on tanker shipping, bearish on container shipping and urges reduction of holdings

格隆汇 March 3｜Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that conflicts in the Middle East have affected the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz. The bank cites Clarkson's estimates, stating that currently 7% of the crude oil tanker fleet capacity, 5% of liquefied petroleum gas ships, 4% of product oil tankers, 2% of container ships, 2% of bulk carriers, and 2% of liquefied natural gas fleet capacity are located within the Persian Gulf. The bank maintains a constructive outlook on tanker shipping, believing that the current reduction in compliant vessel supply has a positive impact on the industry. Additionally, increased production by oil-producing countries is driving up freight volumes, which is also beneficial for the sector, and the bargaining power of major operators is unprecedentedly strong. Regarding container shipping, the bank believes that the current geopolitical tensions have limited impact on supply and demand. Rising oil prices will have a negative impact on container shipping due to increased cost pressures. Although short-term market sentiment is positive, the bank still expects the industry to enter a downward cycle due to oversupply and recommends reducing holdings when stock prices rise. As for the aviation sector, Chinese airlines have not hedged fuel prices, and surging oil prices are a negative factor for airlines. However, if oil prices fall back to normal levels after a short-term spike, the upward cycle will continue. The bank maintains a constructive outlook on the industry.