Goldman Sachs: AI may replace more than 4 million jobs annually, but it will not trigger a "job apocalypse"

格隆汇 March 3｜The Goldman Sachs investment banking research team released a report stating that AI will not trigger the so-called "employment apocalypse." On the contrary, the report paints a more optimistic scenario: AI software will take over millions of jobs, but at the same time, it will create millions of new positions to compensate, keeping the unemployment rate low. This report is, to some extent, a response to a report released last weekend by Citrini Research, which was widely circulated online. Citrini depicted a scenario in which AI software replaces a large number of human workers, ultimately leading to economic collapse. Goldman Sachs does not deny that AI may bring about massive disruption. Joseph Briggs, Goldman Sachs global economist, pointed out that in the coming years, AI may replace 1 million to more than 4 million jobs annually. Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs still believes that AI will not significantly increase the unemployment rate. Briggs said, the U.S. economy creates more than 30 million new jobs every year, and technological change is the main driver of long-term employment growth. He expects this dynamic to play out again, with AI destroying some jobs while also creating new positions. In fact, after examining economic data, Briggs found that so far, except for a few specific professions such as software development, there is no evidence that AI has caused significant job losses. He also emphasized that even if AI can complete a certain task, it does not mean that humans will be completely replaced in that position. From historical experience, humans often continue to play a role in the same positions.