RBA Outlook: Reasons a 25bps Increase to 4.1% Appears Most Probable

Upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting: Key Shifts and Global Impacts

The Reserve Bank of Australia will convene on Tuesday, March 17, 2026, at 03:30am GMT. The shift from the disinflationary optimism of 2025 to the onset of an active rate-hiking phase in early 2026 marks one of the most dramatic changes in the nation's recent monetary policy.

This heightened volatility is largely driven by the intensification of the US-Israel conflict with Iran. What began as a localized dispute has now evolved into a significant threat to both worldwide energy stability and international shipping routes. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz—a vital passageway responsible for nearly a fifth of global liquid energy transport—has had far-reaching consequences.