Bitget UEX Daily | US-Iran Talks Near Agreement; Robinhood Plans $1.5B Stock Buyback; PDD Reports Earnings Today (March 25, 2026)

 

I. Hot Topics

Fed Developments

No Major New Statements, Market Focuses on Geopolitical Signals for Policy Path

• The Fed continues to maintain its previous rate stance, with markets closely tracking the potential impact of Middle East negotiations on inflation expectations.
• This comes against the backdrop of emerging de-escalation signals in the Middle East, where energy price fluctuations could alter rate-cut expectations.
• Market Impact: If the talks yield substantive progress, eased energy cost pressure could give the Fed greater policy flexibility, providing short-term support for risk asset pricing.

International Commodities

US-Iran Talks Release Ceasefire Signals, Thai Tanker Safely Passes Through Strait of Hormuz

• Trump stated that US-Iran talks “may be quite close to reaching an agreement,” with the US proposing a ceasefire plan containing 15 items and intending to implement a one-month truce; Iran has agreed not to develop nuclear weapons.
• Thailand’s foreign minister confirmed that, following coordination among Iran, Thailand, and Oman, a Thai tanker has safely passed through the Strait of Hormuz and is expected to arrive in Thailand in early April—a positive signal.
• Market Impact: The risk of energy supply disruption has significantly decreased, putting short-term downward pressure on oil prices, but the long-term geopolitical logic remains intact, supporting global supply chain stability.

Macro Economic Policy

NASA Shifts Strategy, Allocates $20B to Moon Surface Base Construction

• NASA’s new administrator Jared Isaacman announced the abandonment of the lunar orbital space station plan, opting instead to build a $20 billion surface base on the Moon within the next seven years using existing components.
• This shift occurs amid intensifying global space competition and rising geopolitical tensions.
• Market Impact: Strengthens expectations for US space industry investment, benefiting related aerospace manufacturing and advanced materials chains.

II. Market Recap

Commodities & FX Performance

• Spot Gold: Up ~2.05%, latest $4,566/oz, strong tail-end rebound after earlier pullback into the above $4,500 zone; de-escalation signals caused short-term safe-haven demand retreat, but capital inflows + technical rebound + long-term bull thesis (central bank buying, prolonged geopolitical uncertainty) drove the sharp tail-end rally, creating strong near-term momentum and positioning the pullback as a solid buying opportunity.
• Spot Silver: Up ~3.75%, latest $74/oz, larger volatility than gold; dual industrial/precious-metal attributes drove synchronous rebound with gold, with initial signs of industrial demand recovery plus improved risk appetite providing support.
• WTI Crude: Down ~5.68%, latest $87.10/bbl, ceasefire talks and safe passage of Thai tanker through Hormuz significantly eased supply disruption fears, triggering sharp high-level profit-taking pressure.
• Brent Crude: Down ~6.41%, latest $97.79/bbl, international benchmark more sensitive to Middle East events, with energy costs retreating markedly from highs yet long-term Middle East geopolitical logic still offering some support.
• Dollar Index: Mild fluctuation, latest 99.18, de-escalation signals boosted risk appetite, leaving the dollar without a clear one-sided direction, though inflation expectations and Fed policy path still provide some support.

Core Drivers: Markets quickly priced the “geopolitical de-escalation” theme, driving a sharp drop in energy prices and easing the stagflation concerns previously triggered by high oil prices; gold and silver lost some safe-haven support in the short term but staged a strong tail-end rebound. Institutions broadly view gold’s long-term bull foundation (central bank buying, prolonged geopolitical uncertainty, etc.) as intact and recommend buying on dips; crude faces near-term adjustment pressure, but energy logic will recur if talks fail to deliver a substantive deal. Investors should monitor the latest US-Iran negotiation updates, G7 foreign ministers’ meeting, and subsequent EIA crude inventory data for price direction.

Crypto Performance

• BTC: 24H up ~0.26%, latest $70,874, mild rebound after oscillation; de-escalation signals boosted risk appetite, with short-term safe-haven sentiment retreat driving capital inflows.
• ETH: 24H up ~0.87%, latest $2,162, mild recovery following the broader market; leverage liquidation pressure eased.
• Total Crypto Market Cap: 24H up ~0.4%, ~$2.51T, risk assets rebounding in unison.
• Market Liquidations: 24H total $2.34B, long liquidations $1.17B, two-way liquidation scale narrowed.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price ~$70,842; lower long liquidation zones largely cleared, while the 71,000–73,000 zone still shows dense short-side high-leverage clusters—short-term price action more likely to trigger an “upward short squeeze.” Overall structure shows significantly higher liquidation pressure above than below, suggesting any continued oscillation will first test the upper liquidity-dense zone rather than a rapid breakdown.

• Spot ETF Net Flows: BTC spot ETFs saw net outflow of $61.9M yesterday; ETH spot ETFs saw net outflow of $61.9M yesterday.
• BTC Spot In/Out Flows: Yesterday inflows $2.299B, outflows $2.472B, net outflow $174M.

U.S. Index Performance

• Dow: Down 0.18% at 46,124.06, mild oscillation.
• S&P 500: Down 0.37% at 6,556.37, dragged by software stocks.
• Nasdaq: Down 0.84% at 21,761.89, tech sector divergence.

Tech Giants Performance

• Nvidia (NVDA): Down 0.27%, close $175.20—strong AI infrastructure demand providing long-term support.
• Apple (AAPL): Up 0.06%, close $251.64—defensive traits prominent, relatively resilient.
• Alphabet (GOOGL): Down 3.89%, close ~$290.44—dragged by overall risk appetite and software sector.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Down 2.68%, close $372.74—data center expansion accelerating but unable to fully resist sector selling.
• Amazon (AMZN): Down 1.38%, close $207.24—entry into humanoid robotics providing structural support.
• Meta (META): Down 1.84%, close $592.92—Arm chip mega-order boosting AI application narrative.
• Tesla (TSLA): Up 0.57%, close $383.03—chip and robotics layout synergy, relatively strong.

Core Reason: Middle East negotiation signals boosted risk appetite, yet profit-taking pressure persisted in software and growth stocks, resulting in clear tech sector divergence; optical communications surged on mega-order stimulus while software stocks came under pressure, with AI infrastructure and chip self-sufficiency themes continuing to provide structural support.

Sector Rotation Watch

Optical Communications Sector Significantly Higher

• Representative Stocks: AAOI +18.94%, Lumentum +10.02%
• Drivers: AAOI secured $53M 800G order, strong data center demand.

Extended Tech Software Sector Clearly Lower

• Representative Stocks: Salesforce down over 6%, ServiceNow down 5.68%
• Drivers: AWS and Anthropic advancing AI agents to replace white-collar jobs, accelerating office automation.

III. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Robinhood – $1.5B Stock Buyback Plan

Event Summary: Robinhood announced authorization to repurchase up to $1.5B of shares; the stock has fallen 39% year-to-date in 2026, and the company views current valuation as an attractive buyback window. Market View: Management and board demonstrate strong confidence, with long-term value creation recognized. Investment Insight: Strong buyback signal during a depressed stock period; watch subsequent execution for valuation repair catalysis.

2. Li Auto – $1B Stock Buyback Plan

Event Summary: Li Auto’s board approved a share repurchase program authorizing up to $1B in Class A ordinary shares and/or ADRs from the approval date through March 31, 2027. Market View: Company exhibits full confidence in future growth prospects. Investment Insight: Buyback reinforces shareholder returns and supports medium- to long-term valuation stability.

3. Arm Holdings – First Self-Developed AGI CPU Launched

Event Summary: Arm released its first self-developed AGI CPU designed for data center agent workloads, featuring up to 136 Neoverse V3 cores; Meta is the first major customer, with OpenAI, Cloudflare, and SAP also planning purchases; the company expects revenue to reach $25B within five years. Market View: Chip self-sufficiency and ecosystem collaboration accelerate, boosting long-term growth certainty. Investment Insight: With exploding AI compute demand, Arm’s chip business opens a new growth avenue; monitor order execution.

4. Microsoft – Takes Over Texas Data Center and Launches Nuclear AI Initiative

Event Summary: Microsoft assumes Oracle and OpenAI’s abandoned 700 MW Texas data center project with ~$50B investment; simultaneously partners with Nvidia on “AI for nuclear” to shorten nuclear licensing approval cycles by 92%. Market View: Dual-track compute and energy layout accelerates, pushing AI infrastructure expansion into a new phase. Investment Insight: Synergistic energy-compute advantage stands out, providing long-term tailwinds for Microsoft’s cloud and AI businesses.

5. Amazon – Acquires Humanoid Robotics Startup Fauna Robotics

Event Summary: Amazon confirmed the acquisition of humanoid robotics startup Fauna Robotics (financial terms undisclosed); the company launched its $50,000 humanoid robot Sprout earlier this year. Market View: Cloud giant accelerates robotics layout with a clear ecosystem expansion strategy. Investment Insight: AI hardware trend accelerates; Amazon is poised to unlock new growth in the robotics space.

IV. Crypto Project Updates

1. BlackRock Digital Assets head Robbie Mitchnick noted that institutional investors are increasingly concentrating on Bitcoin and Ethereum, viewing most other tokens as short-lived with limited long-term value. He highlighted AI as a more important long-term driver than new token expansion, pointing to the natural symbiosis between crypto as “computer-native money” and AI’s “computer-native data and intelligence.”
2. Morgan Stanley Digital Assets Strategy head Amy Oldenburg said Wall Street’s entry into crypto is not driven by FOMO but by years of infrastructure modernization. The bank is expanding its digital asset strategy around trading, asset management, and infrastructure, planning tokenized stock trading on alternative trading systems in H2 2026. Oldenburg noted that upgrading decades-old banking systems and coordinating global financial networks remain the main challenges, although interest in tools like stablecoins is growing and institutional crypto activity is quietly accumulating.
3. Bitcoin mining economics remain under pressure, with some miners facing cost challenges; monitor subsequent hash rate and difficulty adjustments.
4. BlackRock withdrew 2,267 BTC worth $157.77M from Coinbase in the past 10 hours.
5. According to Wintermute market analysis, the pause in US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days reduced geopolitical risk premium, causing Brent crude to retreat and Bitcoin to reclaim the $70,000 level yesterday. Wintermute stated that if Hormuz Strait normalization occurs and oil stabilizes near $100, Bitcoin could test the $74,000–$76,000 resistance zone; renewed escalation could pull it back to $65,000. Sustained de-escalation could see institutional dip-buying push Bitcoin toward $80,000.
6. Bernstein’s latest report states Bitcoin has bottomed and reiterates its year-end price target of $150,000. The report notes recent Bitcoin pullback was an emotional reset with no systemic fundamental risks; Bitcoin has outperformed gold by ~25% since the Iran conflict erupted in late February. Bernstein remains bullish on Bitcoin treasury company MicroStrategy (MSTR), calling it a high-beta Bitcoin proxy holding ~3.6% of total Bitcoin supply with a market cap of ~$53.5B, assigning an “Outperform” rating and $450 target price. The report also highlights rising demand for MicroStrategy’s preferred stock STRC, offering 11.5% monthly dividends with lower volatility, helping provide long-term capital while reducing equity dilution.

V. Today’s Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Key Events Preview

March 25 (Wednesday)

1. PDD Holdings (Pinduoduo) earnings release (pre-market) – focus on narrowing cross-border e-commerce losses, Temu overseas expansion, and domestic competitive pressure; significant sentiment impact on Chinese internet stocks.
2. Fed’s Miran speech.

March 26 (Thursday)

1. US weekly initial jobless claims (20:30) – high-frequency labor market indicator.
2. Multiple Fed officials speak (Jefferson, Barr, etc.) – verify recent policy path and inflation response.
3. G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (26-27) – watch statements on Middle East/Hormuz Strait/energy supply.

March 27 (Friday)

1. March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final reading – watch impact of geopolitics and oil prices on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Institutional Views

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan latest views note that US-Iran talks have released positive signals and Hormuz passage recovery has eased energy supply concerns, putting short-term downward pressure on oil prices while long-term geopolitical logic remains; gold pullbacks are viewed as buying opportunities with the long-term bull foundation intact. Tech sector divergence is evident, with AI infrastructure and chip self-sufficiency themes continuing to attract favor; Arm and Microsoft moves reinforce compute expansion expectations. Overall market risk appetite has warmed, but substantive negotiation progress and Fed policy path still require attention. In the short term, volatility persists, yet energy de-escalation and AI dual themes offer prominent allocation value; medium- to long-term outlook favors related industry chains.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, manually verified for release only, and does not constitute any investment advice.