TD Securities: Prolonged Oil Price Shock May Weaken the Dollar

TD Securities strategists stated in a report that the ongoing oil price shock stemming from the Iran conflict could ultimately be detrimental to the U.S. dollar. They indicated that the U.S.'s energy independence should delay the impact on the U.S. compared to the EU and Asia, thus temporarily favoring the dollar in terms of growth and relative interest rate differentials. "Ultimately, even the U.S. and the Federal Reserve will not be immune to the growth and macro impacts of prolonged disruptions in the energy markets," they said. They added that if the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates by the end of this year, the dollar should weaken in the medium term. Concerns about the U.S. deficit may also be exacerbated by increased defense spending.