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Bitcoin may fall below $60,000: Break-even period could extend to 2027, as whale sell-off intensifies downside risk

Bitcoin may fall below $60,000: Break-even period could extend to 2027, as whale sell-off intensifies downside risk

BlockBeatsBlockBeats2026/03/28 08:09
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BlockBeats News, March 28, according to Cointelegraph, the latest data shows that if Bitcoin falls further below $60,000, the time for the market to return to its historical high may be postponed until 2027.


Analysis indicates that Bitcoin has dropped approximately 48% from its high of around $126,000 in 2025. According to historical patterns, for every additional 10% drop, the recovery cycle is extended by an average of about 80 days. Currently, if $60,000 is the stage bottom, it is estimated that about 300 days will be needed to complete the recovery. However, if it continues to fall to the $40,000–$45,000 range, the total drawdown will exceed 60%, and the recovery cycle may be prolonged to about 440 days, pushing the timeline to after the second quarter of 2027.


On-chain indicators also show that the bottom has not yet been confirmed. The comprehensive market index (BCMI) is currently around 0.27, higher than the historical bottom range (about 0.12–0.15), which means there is still further downside potential.


In terms of capital flows, whale sell-offs continue to intensify pressure. Data shows that large holders' selling pressure has reached the highest level in nearly 18 months, while liquidity in both the spot and futures markets is weakening simultaneously. Institutional views believe that the current market is in a deep adjustment cycle, and if the macro environment remains tight (including interest rates staying high or even rising), it will further delay the pace of the crypto market's recovery.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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