TMC Jumps 7.1% in a Volatile Rally as Nickel-Cobalt Prices Climb and Defense Industry Gains Traction

TMC Surges Amid Strategic Developments and Market Optimism

• TMC shares soared to an intraday peak of $4.509, achieving their strongest performance in several months.
• Despite an expanded annual net loss of $319.8 million for 2025, the company highlighted advancements in deep-sea mining operations.
• Supportive U.S. policy and a bullish outlook for the $35 billion-plus nickel-cobalt market have bolstered investor confidence.

TMC experienced a notable 7.07% increase on Thursday, fueled by a combination of strategic milestones, favorable market dynamics, and geopolitical support. With liquidity projected at $154 million and a strategic emphasis on U.S. deep-sea mining, the company’s stock appears to be gaining momentum. The rally is further underpinned by robust demand for nickel and cobalt, driven by defense and energy storage sectors, signaling a new era for critical minerals.

Financial Update: Losses Deepen, but Strategic Progress Inspires Confidence

Although TMC reported a larger annual net loss of $319.8 million for 2025—primarily due to increased royalty obligations and administrative expenses—CEO Gerard Barron remains optimistic about the company’s production trajectory. Key factors fueling this outlook include enhanced U.S. policy backing and progress on the company’s polymetallic nodule processing facility. With $154 million in liquidity as of Q1 2026, investor sentiment has improved. The sharp rebound in TMC’s stock price reflects both short sellers covering positions and new buyers entering the market, encouraged by a positive outlook for nickel and cobalt.

Specialty Metals Sector: MP Materials Leads as TMC Recovers

The specialty metals industry is gaining traction, with MP Materials (MP) outperforming TMC by nearly 3.3% in a single day. This momentum is driven by heightened defense demand for advanced alloys and a geopolitical push for domestic supply chains. While TMC continues to recover from significant losses, its unique role in the deep-sea polymetallic nodule sector and the broader expansion of the nickel-cobalt market position it well for future growth. The rally in TMC underscores a shift in how strategic minerals are valued, increasingly viewed as essential for national security.

Technical Analysis: Signs Point to a Potential Reversal

• Bollinger Bands: With TMC trading near the lower band ($4.04), the stock appears oversold and may be poised for a rebound.
• RSI: At 7.78, the extremely low reading suggests the downtrend may be losing steam, hinting at a possible reversal.
• MACD: Still negative, but the shrinking histogram could indicate a near-term shift in momentum.
• 200-Day Moving Average: At $6.48, this level remains a significant resistance point above the current price.
• Leveraged ETFs: The Direxion Daily TSM Bull 2X ETF (TSMX) climbed 10.06%, reflecting strong retail interest in the sector.

Technical indicators suggest that TMC may be on the verge of a short-term turnaround after a prolonged decline. The oversold RSI and proximity to the lower Bollinger Band support the case for a potential bounce. Investors should watch the $4.50 mark for a breakout and monitor the 200-day moving average as a key resistance level.

Top Bullish Options to Watch

• TMC20260417C4.5
  • Type: Call Option | Strike: $4.50 | Expiry: 2026-04-17
  • Implied Volatility: 112.20% | Delta: 0.4955 | Theta: -0.022976 | Gamma: 0.4655 | Turnover: 3,635
  • High implied volatility and strong gamma make this option attractive for volatility-driven rallies. A 5% move up to $4.61 could yield $0.11 per share if TMC surpasses $4.50.
• TMC20260417C5
  • Type: Call Option | Strike: $5.00 | Expiry: 2026-04-17
  • Implied Volatility: 131.47% | Delta: 0.3880 | Theta: -0.017072 | Gamma: 0.2982 | Turnover: 7,247
  • This option offers robust implied volatility and is suitable for those seeking a speculative, longer-term position. A 5% rise to $4.61 could result in a $0.61 per share payoff if the stock breaks above $5.00.

Actionable Insight: Aggressive investors may consider the TMC20260417C4.5 call if the stock rebounds above $4.50.

ETF Performance Linked to TMC

Backtesting TMC’s Stock Performance

Historical analysis of TMC following a 7% intraday jump from 2022 onward reveals encouraging trends. The stock posted a 43.76% win rate over three days, 46.30% over ten days, and 53.07% over thirty days, suggesting a favorable short-term outlook. The highest return observed during this period was 19.22% on day 59, indicating the potential for substantial gains after such surges.

Key Takeaways: TMC’s Turning Point

TMC’s recent 7.1% rally, despite reporting deeper losses, highlights a company at a pivotal moment. While long-term technicals remain cautious, short-term signals—including a recovering RSI and supportive Bollinger Bands—point to a possible rebound. The $4.50 price level is critical for a breakout, while the 200-day moving average remains a significant resistance. In the broader market, MP Materials continues to outperform, reinforcing the bullish sentiment in strategic metals. Should TMC sustain its momentum and move above $4.50, it could mark a shift in investor outlook and pave the way for renewed growth.