GBP/USD edges down to 1.3200 as US Dollar strengthens on Trump’s warnings

British Pound Drops Amid Heightened Geopolitical Tensions

During the North American trading hours, the British Pound declined after US President Donald Trump intensified the ongoing conflict, suggesting that the situation could persist for another two to three weeks. At the current moment, GBP/USD is trading at 1.32144, marking a 0.40% decrease.

Market Sentiment Dampened by War Concerns and Rising Oil Prices

Late Wednesday, President Trump stated that the US operation in Iran would conclude swiftly and cautioned Tehran that American forces would target energy and oil infrastructure if negotiations failed. He also emphasized that the US does not rely on the Strait of Hormuz, urging allied nations to take action to reopen the passage due to their dependence on Middle Eastern energy supplies. Following these remarks, the US Dollar strengthened, global stock markets fell, and oil prices surged.

GBP/USD dropped to a two-day low of 1.3181 before rebounding above 1.3200. News from IRNA that “Iran reportedly drafts a protocol with Oman for the Strait of Hormuz traffic” contributed to a partial recovery in the currency pair, helping it recoup some earlier losses.

Mixed US Employment Data; Focus Shifts to NFP

Recent US labor statistics presented a mixed picture. While jobless claims improved, the Challenger report revealed that companies cut 60,620 jobs in March, a rise of over 24% compared to 2025. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28 totaled 202,000, beating forecasts of 212,000 and falling from the previous week's 215,000.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan commented that current monetary policy is well-equipped to handle uncertainty. She noted the Federal Reserve’s readiness to adjust interest rates as needed, highlighting that the conflict in the Middle East adds uncertainty to the economic outlook.

Although markets in the UK and US will be closed for Good Friday, US economic releases will continue. March Nonfarm Payroll data is anticipated at 60,000, a positive shift following February’s disappointing -92,000 figure. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.4%.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD Outlook

On the daily chart, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3240, maintaining a slightly bearish short-term trend. The pair has slipped below the cluster of Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) near 1.3480, which currently acts as resistance. The breach of the previous upward support from 1.3035 has altered the technical landscape, with recent closes gravitating toward the lower end of the range. The downward resistance line from 1.3869 continues to restrict recovery attempts. Rising Fed sentiment readings reinforce a stronger US Dollar, supporting ongoing downward pressure on GBP/USD.

Key resistance is located around 1.3350, where recent highs intersect with the descending trendline, followed by the 1.3480 area defined by compressed SMAs. A daily close above 1.3480 would help alleviate bearish momentum and target the 1.3550 region. On the downside, immediate support is found near 1.3220, just above the trendline’s origin at 1.3035. If sellers push below 1.3035, a deeper decline toward 1.2900 could unfold.

(Technical analysis for this article was assisted by an AI tool.)