"Federal Reserve Mouthpiece": Ceasefire Agreement Makes Decision-Making Even More Difficult for the Fed

```htmlGolden Ten Data reported on April 9 that "Federal Reserve mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos wrote that a ceasefire between the US and Iran provides an opportunity to resolve the serious threat currently facing the global economy. However, for the Federal Reserve, this may simply replace one problem with another: the ongoing volatility in energy prices is enough to keep inflation at a relatively high level, but not enough to severely damage demand. The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes emphasized that the war is not the main reason the Fed is reluctant to cut interest rates, but rather it has made the Fed's already cautious stance even more complicated. Even before the conflict broke out, the path to rate cuts had already narrowed. The labor market has stabilized, alleviating concerns about a recession, while the process toward achieving the Fed's 2% inflation target has stalled. The Federal Reserve did not adjust rates at its March meeting, partly due to concerns about the risks posed by a prolonged war. The risk that an escalation of the conflict could drag down economic growth and trigger a recession was once the last, and also the strongest, reason to support a resumption of rate cuts. Paradoxically, however, the end of the war might, in the short term, actually make it harder rather than easier for the Federal Reserve to implement easing measures. This is because the ceasefire agreement eliminates the worst-case economic scenario—serious price increases disrupting supply chains and damaging demand—which can be considered even more important than eliminating the risk of new inflation pressures.```