AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Forms shooting-star, drops below 112.00 as bears lurk
The Australian Dollar extended its gains versus the Japanese Yen, driven by an improvement in risk appetite amid the two-week pause in the Middle East conflict between the US and Iran. Still, traders must be aware that hostilities remain as Israel strikes Beirut, saying that Lebanon is not part of the deal. At the time of writing, the AUD/JPY trades at 111.79, up 0.39%.
AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, the AUD/JPY seems poised to consolidate, as it forms a quasi-shooting star, preceded by an uptrend that is about to close below the candle's half-size, an indication that buyers are losing momentum.
This is reflected in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is bullish, but tilted to the downside, towards the index`s 50-neutral level. Hence, a clear break below 50 would mean that sellers are gaining momentum, pushing the AUD/JPY lower.
For a bullish continuation, buyers need to clear the April 8 daily high at 112.38, which would open the path to challenge 113.00. Further resistance lies overjed at 113.96, the March 11 peak.
Conversely, if AUD/JPY drops to 111.50, a psychological level a move towards the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 111.02 and the 111.00 figure is likely. Below here, sellers are gradually taking hold, driving the cross towards the 50-day SMA at 110.47, ahead of the 110.00 milestone.
AUD/JPY Price — Chart
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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1. Technology stocks fell sharply as investor interest shifted toward energy and selected defensive assets. From October 10 to 16, the Nasdaq 100 declined 5.49% and the S&P 500 fell 1.95%, while the Dow gained 0.67% and WTI crude rose 10.41%. BTC, ETH, and SOL declined 1.27%, 2.65%, and 4.44%, respectively. This week's technology earnings will be an important test of whether revenue growth, margins, and cash flow can justify current valuations. Better-than-expected results could help stabilize markets in the near term. 2. Crypto continues to see pockets of strong activity, but a broad-based altcoin season has yet to materialize. CoinMarketCap's (CMC) Altcoin Season Index stood at 54 as of the October 18 UTC daily observation, below the altcoin-season threshold of 75, while BTC dominance rose to 60.08%. Our proxy leverage ratio fluctuated between 4.00 and 4.07 during the week, showing no sustained increase and suggesting limited appetite for additional leverage. Meanwhile, as major exchanges expand access to traditional financial assets, the recent sell-off in AI-related equities could attract short-term speculative capital away from crypto. Such capital rotation could make it more difficult for a new altcoin season to take hold. 3. Papertrade's loss-to-mine model has generated significant interest across the crypto community. The protocol combines high-leverage derivatives trading with zero slippage and a mechanism that rewards trading losses with PAPER tokens. Across the eight complete UTC days from October 10 to 17, cumulative reported revenue reached approximately $56.08 million, including $51.90 million distributed to token holders. With growing participation from key opinion leaders (KOLs), Papertrade has reportedly ranked among the top three platforms by profitability in the broader market recently. Assets to watch: BTC, ETH, SOL, ARB, OP, SKHYNIX, SKHY, META, TSLA, LRCX, and SPCX. Key research priorities this week: Cash flow performance in technology earnings; the relative discount and holding costs of the two SK Hynix contracts; and U.S. initial jobless claims and PMI data. Weekly market data cover the period through October 16, while research information was verified through October 18. Observation periods are specified separately for each chart.

