Forex Today: Risk rally slows down as US-Iran truce remains uncertain

Key Market Updates for Thursday, April 9

As Thursday begins, the momentum from the recent risk rally—sparked by a temporary two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran—has faded, leading investors to adopt a more cautious approach. Later today, the US economic calendar highlights the release of weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February. Additionally, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will announce the final revision of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth data.

Midweek, Wall Street’s primary indices posted notable gains as markets responded positively to the easing of tensions in the Middle East. However, recent developments from the region have reignited doubts about the durability of the ceasefire. Reflecting this shift in sentiment, US stock index futures are down roughly 0.3% today.

Iranian authorities have accused Israel of violating the ceasefire through continued actions in Lebanon, stating that such behavior makes ongoing peace negotiations with the US “unreasonable.” Furthermore, Iran’s Fars News Agency reported late Wednesday that oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz were halted following Israel’s breach of the agreement, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump announced that all American military assets will remain stationed in and around Iran until a comprehensive agreement is reached and fully honored, warning of a stronger military response if compliance is not met.

The Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes, released Wednesday, indicate that policymakers are taking a cautious, observant stance, though they recognize that economic risks are becoming more balanced. Some officials expressed concern that prolonged conflict in the Middle East could weaken the labor market, while others warned that sustained high oil prices could keep inflation elevated longer than anticipated. The US Dollar (USD) Index dropped to its lowest point in nearly a month near 98.50 on Wednesday but recovered some losses during US trading hours. Early Thursday, the USD Index is holding modest gains above 99.00.

Commodities and Currencies Overview

• Crude Oil: Oil prices are rebounding after a steep decline on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is currently trading near $92.50 per barrel, up over 1% for the day.
• Gold (XAU/USD): Gold briefly surpassed $4,850 before reversing course to close slightly lower on Wednesday. On Thursday morning in Europe, XAU/USD remains in a consolidation phase around $4,700.
• EUR/USD: The euro pared some of its gains during the US session but still advanced more than 0.5% on Wednesday. Early Thursday, the pair is fluctuating near 1.1650.
• GBP/USD: The British pound extended its winning streak for a third day on Wednesday, supported by a weaker USD. The pair is trading sideways just below 1.3400 as the European session begins.
• USD/JPY: After dropping over 0.6% on Wednesday, the dollar is rebounding against the yen, moving toward the 159.00 level.