A certain whale has accumulated $527,000 in bets on "the Iranian regime will collapse by June 30," but is currently at a loss of $345,000.

According to Odaily Seer Channel monitoring, the whale at address 0xa7d1...b824 has accumulated purchases of 527,000 US dollars worth of "Iranian regime will fall on June 30", and is now at a loss of 345,000 US dollars. Previously, this whale separately bought 176,000 US dollars of "US troops will invade Iran before March 31" and 148,000 US dollars of "Iranian regime will fall before March 31", both of which failed predictions.

According to the market's judgment rules, the "Yes" condition for this event is extremely strict: the current ruling system of the Islamic Republic of Iran (for example, the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, or the Revolutionary Guard led by clergy) must be dissolved, paralyzed, or replaced by a completely different governance system before June 30, 2026. The judgment basis must be a consensus of recognized authoritative media, confirming that the regime has lost effective control over the majority of the population. The rules clearly state that regular political elections, internal reforms, or power transitions do not meet the settlement requirements. Even if an internal coup occurs, as long as the core structure of the Islamic Republic is preserved, the market will still settle as "No". Additionally, the loss of some territories or challenges from anti-government forces do not count as "regime collapse" unless they result in the regime being unable to govern most of the country's population.

Odaily Seer Channel will continue to closely monitor the prediction markets—seeing the changes before the pricing happens.