Wintermute: Ceasefire Transaction Is Dead, Market Resumes Upgrade Trend, Strait Confirmation Reopening Could Propel Bitcoin Above $75,000

BlockBeats News, April 14th, Wintermute stated in a post that the market experienced two distinct phases last week: driven by ceasefire expectations in the first half of the week, Nasdaq rose by 4.5%, Bitcoin rose by 2.6%, and VIX fell below 20. The weekend saw the Islamabad talks collapse, the U.S. announcing a comprehensive naval blockade of Iranian ports, Brent crude oil skyrocketing by 8% in a single day to re-enter above $103, and risk assets retracing gains.

On the macro side:

In the U.S., March CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, with core CPI up by 2.6%, slightly below expectations. The market believes this is still a concentrated energy shock rather than broad inflation.

Asian markets saw a slight overnight decline, with Nasdaq futures holding steady. The market's reaction to every piece of news is diminishing, with the market either pricing in the worst-case scenario or becoming complacent.

On the crypto asset side:

Bitcoin closed up by 2.6% last week but did not lead the gains. The price has been consolidating in the $65,000-$73,000 range for over two months.

Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $22.3 million last week, while Ethereum ETF continued to bleed, with year-to-date outflows reaching $327 million.

Open interest in perpetual contracts remains stable in the $28-$30 billion range. Options traders' gamma exposure in the $68,000-$72,000 range implies hedging activity will amplify bi-directional fluctuations within that range.

Wintermute believes the ceasefire trade is dead, and the market is back in escalation mode. However, the market's reaction function is weakening. The reopening of the Hormuz Strait could potentially drive Bitcoin above $75,000, while continued escalation would keep the price in a range-bound state with a downward bias. Earnings season may partially shift market attention back to fundamentals, potentially altering positioning near the boundaries of the range.