Is national debt pushing the United States towards bankruptcy? Is it still necessary to hold gold?

　　The safe-haven and monetary attributes of gold have been in high demand in recent years. The market has re-evaluated the possible outcome of the Strait of Hormuz dispute, and today the international gold price has returned above $4,800/ounce, indicating market optimism. However, whether the upward trend in international gold prices has truly re-established itself remains to be seen.

　　Compared to international gold prices, the sharp rise in international silver prices (a common feature of risk-on precious metal rallies) indicates that investors are not just seeking safe havens, but are actively increasing their exposure in complex markets in pursuit of further gains.

　　Giovanni Staunovo, commodities analyst at UBS Group, said that after the Middle East conflict ends, commodities such as gold and oil could continue to rise sharply in price. However, investors holding large positions in gold should also consider diversifying their portfolios to include other commodities.

　　UBS continues to believe that international gold prices may rise to $5,900–$6,200/ounce this year. Gold is increasingly being used as a hedging tool against the widespread impact of conflicts, as it mainly helps guard against risks such as currency depreciation, expanding fiscal deficits, and global economic slowdown triggered by geopolitical conflicts.

　　Although short-term inflation risks from rising global energy prices and possible Federal Reserve rate hikes have raised market concerns—and neither favors higher international gold prices—UBS believes the probability of further rate hikes is low. The longer the Middle East conflict persists, the greater the risk of negative economic impact, which is likely to boost safe-haven demand for gold.

Editor: Zhu Henan