EUR/USD remains elevated around 1.1800 amid optimism for a settlement in Iran’s conflict

Euro Holds Steady Against US Dollar Amid Geopolitical Developments

On Wednesday, the Euro (EUR) remained largely unchanged versus the US Dollar (USD), trading at 1.1785 after climbing nearly 2.5% over the last seven sessions. The shared currency has rebounded to levels seen before the recent conflict, as traders have reduced their long positions in the Dollar, encouraged by renewed optimism for a peace agreement involving Iran.

US President Donald Trump reinforced this optimism during a New York Post interview, indicating that peace negotiations could resume in Islamabad within the next couple of days. While Iranian officials have yet to respond, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres stated that it is “very probable” discussions will restart this week.

At the same time, the US military reported that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is now “fully implemented.” This action effectively halts Iran’s maritime commerce—which makes up about 90% of its economy—intensifying pressure on the Islamic Republic to reach an agreement, but also exacerbating the strain on global oil supplies.

European Inflation Rises as Conflict Impacts Prices

Within the Eurozone, France’s March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data mirrored the inflation trends previously observed in Germany and Spain, highlighting the inflationary impact of the ongoing conflict. The upcoming Eurozone Industrial Production report, reflecting February’s figures before the Middle East tensions escalated, is expected to have minimal influence on markets.

On Tuesday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde noted that the Eurozone economy is fluctuating between the ECB’s baseline and more negative scenarios. She refrained from providing specific guidance on future rate hikes, instead emphasizing a continued reliance on incoming data.

Meanwhile, in the United States, March’s Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-over-year increase to 4%, up from 3.4% in February but falling short of the 4.6% forecast. The core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 3.8% annually, also below the anticipated 4.2%.

Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Approaches Key Resistance

The EUR/USD pair continues to exhibit bullish momentum, holding near its highest levels in six weeks. On the four-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains positive, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also signals ongoing upward strength, suggesting that the rally could persist.

• Resistance: The initial barrier is at 1.1825, which previously limited gains in late February. If surpassed, the next target lies near the highs recorded on February 9, 10, and 11, around 1.1930.
• Support: On the downside, the pair is finding support above 1.1780. Should this level give way, attention would shift to the 1.1720–1.1730 range, with further support near the lows from April 8 and 9, around 1.1650.

(This technical analysis was prepared with the assistance of AI technology.)