Analyst comments on initial jobless claims data: Without war and tariffs, the US economy would be “extremely strong”

Golden Ten Data reported on April 16 that Investinglive analyst Adam Button stated that the US initial jobless claims data last week performed well. Despite the ongoing war in Iran, recent economic data has repeatedly improved. In addition, the Philadelphia Fed data easily surpassed expectations. If not for war and tariffs, the US economy should be extremely strong, with AI leading the prosperity. Specifically, the number of initial jobless claims fell from 218,000 last week to 207,000, indicating that the labor market remains tight and has not substantially deteriorated. The four-week moving average was almost unchanged, which is key to observing seasonal noise from Easter and spring break. Unadjusted data rose 6.0% week-on-week, but the seasonal factor expected a rise of 11.8%, so the adjusted data benefited as a result. Continuing jobless claims rose slightly by 31,000 to 1.818 million, but the four-week moving average fell to the lowest level in nearly two years, showing that the unemployed can still find new jobs relatively quickly. The year-on-year number of continuing claims is lower than the same period in 2025 (1.943 million).