Bitcoin's upward momentum weakens as the market shifts focus to real economic recovery progress

BlockBeats reported that on April 17th, after briefly surpassing $76,000, Bitcoin's price fell back, continuing this week's volatile trend. The previous approximately 10% increase driven by the news of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel is gradually fading, and the market is shifting from sentiment-driven movements to verifying actual economic recovery signals.

According to institutional analysis, a ceasefire alone is no longer sufficient to support further gains in risk assets. Investors are now focused on substantial progress such as the restoration of energy supplies, the decline in crude oil risk premiums, and a decrease in inflation. Currently, the key variable remains the recovery of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for about 20% of global oil transportation prior to the conflict.

In the energy markets, WTI crude oil prices have retreated to around $87,5, while Brent crude remains near $90, reflecting a cautious market attitude toward the resumption of supply.

On the derivatives side, the 30-day implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum continues to decrease, indicating expectations that more definite macro developments may emerge in the short term. Meanwhile, open interest in Solana and DOGE futures has climbed to multi-week highs, with rising demand for leverage, which could amplify price volatility risks.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is forming a potential "double top" structure around $76,000. If it breaks the neckline at $73,300, it may further test $70,000; if it breaks above $76,000 effectively, it could open up upside potential to $88,000.

Overall, the market is still in a "partial recovery" phase. Risk appetite is improving but not yet fully confirmed, and attention should remain on the restoration of energy supplies and macro data changes going forward.