Satellite glimpses reveal lingering refinery flames as million-barrel-level leak injures the supply chain

⑴ Sentinel-2 satellite imagery shows that at least two refineries within Iran continue to burn with open flames after several days of damaged storage tanks. Footage taken on Wednesday captured massive black smoke plumes rising above the damaged crude oil tanks, indicating the fire remains uncontrolled.⑵ According to maritime research institute Tanker Trackers, the capacity of just one burning storage tank is estimated at around 1 million barrels of crude oil. This volume is equivalent to the total fuel consumption of all American motor vehicles driving for nearly four hours, and the destruction at a single facility has already imposed a significant impact on regional refining capacity.⑶ Satellite imagery of the Lavan refinery, located about 95 miles northwest of Siri Island, further captured severe secondary environmental disasters. Several tanks have leaked crude oil, which has spread into the Persian Gulf waters, where clear floating oil pollution bands can be seen on the sea surface.⑷ Shana, a news agency under Iran’s Ministry of Petroleum, previously disclosed that the Lavan facility was hit by an “enemy” airstrike on April 8. By April 10, space observation confirmed a major crude oil leakage event, revealing a clear timeline between the attack and the pollution spread.⑸ Although Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency characterized the explosion at the facility eight days ago as “cause unknown,” continuous satellite monitoring and corroborating military sources indicate that the scope of attacks on energy infrastructure has spilled over from military targets to critical refining nodes.⑹ Due to recent cloud cover, the latest overhead imaging is unable to determine whether open flames at the Lavan facility have been extinguished. However, the ongoing burning tanks toward Siri Island suggest significant technical obstacles to firefighting efforts, potentially related to airstrike damage to the fire suppression network and foam reserves.⑺ The destruction of million-barrel level storage tanks, combined with crude oil pollution entering the sea, will intensify short-term pressure on Iran’s refined oil export commitments. The uncertain timeline for refinery capacity restoration is further tightening expectations of spot price premiums along the Persian Gulf coast.