April 21 Financial Morning Briefing: US-Iran ceasefire deadline approaching, Vance motorcade departs from the White House, gold price touches above 4830, US oil battles at the 85.50 level

Huitong Network, April 21—— In early Asian trading on April 21 (UTC+8), spot gold edged higher, trading around $4,826/oz, benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar. Although the deadline for the US-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement is approaching and there is no clear progress on whether the second round of talks can be held smoothly before the ceasefire ends.

On Tuesday (April 21, UTC+8) in early Asian trading, spot gold edged higher, trading around $4,826/oz, benefiting from the decline in the U.S. dollar. Although the deadline for the US-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement is approaching and there is no clear progress on whether the second round of talks can be held smoothly before the ceasefire ends, the market remains generally optimistic. Reportedly, U.S. Vice President Vance's motorcade departed from the White House at 6:13 on the 21st (UTC+8); oil prices have retreated, with U.S. crude falling over 1% and trading near $86.45 per barrel, hitting as low as $85.50/barrel at the open.

Key Focus Today

Stock Market

U.S. equities closed slightly lower on Monday, with the Dow down 0.01%, S&P 500 down 0.24%, and Nasdaq down 0.26%, mainly due to renewed US-Iran tensions: Iran closed the critical Strait of Hormuz again over the weekend after briefly reopening it.

Although there are reports that Iran is considering peace talks with Pakistan and the U.S., U.S. Vice President Vance denied attending the meeting. The energy sector outperformed, rising 0.21% against the broader trend, while the communication services sector performed the worst, with Meta falling over 2% after nine consecutive gains and Netflix declining about 2.55%.

Additionally, QXO announced it would acquire TopBuild for $17 billion. The former fell 3.12% and the latter soared 19.38%. This week, several giants including Tesla will release earnings reports, and the market continues to monitor the impact of geopolitics on the real economy.

Gold Market

Gold prices touched a one-week low on Monday, with spot gold down 0.4% to $4,810.26/oz, hitting the lowest since April 13 during the session. U.S. gold futures closed down 1% at $4,828.8/oz, mainly due to rising US-Iran tensions: after the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship, Iran threatened retaliation, causing the U.S. dollar index to climb to its highest in nearly a week and the 10-year Treasury yield to rise.



Analysts point out that the escalation in the Middle East sent the dollar and bond yields higher, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold and putting downward pressure on prices; technically, the next target for June gold futures bulls is a close above the strong $5,000 resistance.
For other precious metals, spot silver fell 1.3% to $79.76, platinum dropped 1.4%, palladium fell 0.2% and at one point hit a one-week low.

Oil Market

Oil prices surged Monday, with Brent crude futures up 4.9% to $67.32/bbl and WTI up 5.1% at $63.84/bbl, marking the largest single-day gain in nearly two weeks. The escalation in US-Iran tensions directly lifted the risk premium, intensifying market concerns over shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz, and heightened expectations of further supply disruptions from some Middle East oil producers, significantly boosting short-term bullish sentiment.



However, analysts remind that current demand remains weak, as global manufacturing PMIs have stayed below the boom/bust line for consecutive months, limiting the upside for oil prices.

Forex Market

The U.S. dollar fell against the euro on Monday, with the dollar index down 0.39% to 98.07 and the euro up 0.16% to $1.1781, as traders remained optimistic about a breakthrough in the Iran peace process despite renewed tensions over the weekend (the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship and Iran threatened retaliation).



An Iranian senior official revealed that Iran is considering participating in U.S.-led peace talks in Pakistan. Analysts from Scotiabank noted that there was an initial panic reaction when the market opened, but subsequent price action showed some extent of relief and rekindled hope for a resolution.

The yen slipped 0.1% to 158.81 against the dollar, while the pound rose 0.16% to $1.3535. The market is also watching Tuesday's Senate confirmation hearing for Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, Walsh, who has pledged to ensure strict independence in monetary policy-making.

International News

According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is 0%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 100%. The probability of a total 25 basis points rate cut by June is 2.5%, and keeping rates unchanged is 97.5%. The probability of a total 25 basis points rate cut by December is 46.9%, and keeping rates unchanged is 53.1%.



In the early morning of the 21st local time, Iran's Islamic Parliament Speaker Kalibaf stated that U.S. President Trump is trying to turn the negotiation table into a surrender table or find an excuse to start another war by imposing a blockade and violating the ceasefire agreement. Kalibaf emphasized, "Iran will not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats," and said that in the past two weeks Iran has been prepared to "play new cards" on the battlefield. (CCTV News)



On the 20th local time, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei once again emphasized three core positions, including the demand for “war reparations”, with a focus on resolutely safeguarding national interests. Mojtaba’s official social media account stated that Iran would hold those responsible for the attacks accountable and seek compensation for damages caused by the conflict; promote a new phase in the management of the Strait of Hormuz; and would never give up its legitimate rights, treating all "resistance fronts" in the region as a unified whole. On April 9, Mojtaba made a written statement on the fortieth day since the martyrdom of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and current war issues, putting forward these three points for the first time. (Xinhua News Agency)



The U.S. and Iran began a two-week ceasefire on April 8 (UTC+8), which will expire on the 22nd. So far, there is still no clear progress regarding whether the second round of U.S.-Iran talks can be held before the ceasefire ends. American sources say "talks are scheduled as planned," but the Iranian side says it has not decided whether to participate, making final negotiations still uncertain.



The U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced on the 20th that it has launched the first phase of tariff refund work under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Importers or their authorized customs brokers can submit refund applications through the new module in the declaration system.



On the 19th local time, according to Iranian reports, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy has delineated a new shipping route from south of Hormuz Island to south of Larak Island. This route is named the "Larak Corridor," and navigation is not allowed without permission from the IRGC Navy. What impact does setting up the "Larak Corridor" have? Guest commentator Su Xiaohui noted: The route’s designation reflects Iran’s intention to tighten control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz and to engage in a game of leverage with the U.S. regarding navigation. (CCTV News)



According to the British shipping media Lloyd’s List on the 20th, at least 26 ships related to Iran have breached the U.S. military blockade. Since the U.S. began the blockade on ships entering and exiting Iranian ports on the 13th, 11 of the breaching vessels were oil tankers carrying Iranian goods. Since the expansion of the blockade last week, more than 10 ships have successfully passed through the blockade area. In addition, a Greek-owned bulk carrier departed from an Iranian port on the 15th and crossed the line on the 19th. (Xinhua News Agency)



According to a notice on the French Ministry of the Interior website on the 20th, the National Security Credentials Bureau, which handles vehicle registrations, licenses, ID cards, and passports, detected a security incident involving user data leakage on its portal on the 15th. The breach involves user personal account data such as names, email addresses, dates of birth, and, in some cases, mailing addresses, places of birth, and phone numbers. However, the data leak does not involve supporting documents submitted during the application process, nor does it allow others to illegally access these portal accounts. (Xinhua News Agency)



On April 20 local time, U.S. President Trump posted on social media stating that the blockade against Iran would not be lifted until an “agreement” is reached. Since the 13th, the U.S. military began blockading ships entering and leaving Iranian ports. On the 14th, U.S. Central Command claimed to have “completely cut off Iran’s sea import and export economic trade.” On the 17th, Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to merchant shipping but resumed control on the 18th in response to the U.S. not lifting the blockade. According to an Iranian senior official on the 20th, Pakistan is actively mediating, striving to get the U.S. to lift the blockade on Iran to enable Iranian participation in the negotiations. (CCTV News)



On Monday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that by the end of last year, global strategic petroleum reserves were about 2.5 billion barrels. The top three holders by December 2025 will be China, the U.S., and Japan. Other major holders include OECD countries in Europe, certain Middle Eastern nations, and some in Asia. At the end of last year, U.S. SPR stood at 413 million barrels, about 409 million as of April 10. The U.S. SPR has a total storage capacity of 714 million barrels, and there are also more than 400 million barrels of commercial crude stocks. Japan holds the world's third-largest strategic crude reserve, with about 263 million barrels in government stock by December 2025. Its industrial sector is required to hold 70 days’ worth of supply (about 220 million barrels) in addition to a government-mandated 90-day reserve. South Korea is also expected to hold a large strategic crude stockpile nearing 79 million barrels by December 2025. OECD Europe is projected to hold 179 million barrels in government stocks. Saudi Arabian land storage facilities held an average of 82 million barrels, and the UAE averaged 34 million barrels as of the end of last year. According to Vortexa and Kpler, Iran's onshore stocks will average 71 million barrels by December 2025.



Vietnam’s National Assembly Office said over the weekend that, to boost electric vehicle sales and reduce carbon emissions, the country plans to extend special consumption tax reductions for EVs for nearly four more years to the end of 2030. The statement quoted the Ministry of Finance as saying the government will submit the proposal to parliament. In March 2022, Vietnam cut its special consumption tax on EVs from 4%-11% to 1%-3%, with the current policy set to expire in February 2027. Thanks to these tax breaks, EV sales soared from about 7,000 in 2022 to nearly 175,000 last year.

Domestic News

The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines the cultivation and expansion of emerging and future industries. Currently, several frontier sectors in China are entering a critical stage of accelerated breakthrough and clustered development. The new display industry, which includes LCD, OLED, holographic display and other technical routes, is one of China's key strategic emerging industries and is widely used in smartphones, computers, TVs, and wearables. (CCTV News)