Early Morning, Trump Makes a "Subtle Adjustment" to the Deadline

Source: Wall Street Intelligence Circle

The keyword for global markets on Monday was "hesitation":

- The Nasdaq Index ended its "13-day winning streak," which is more significant psychologically than technically;

- Gold and US Treasury bonds recovered their opening losses;

- The US dollar and crude oil gave back all their gains.

Compared to last Friday's close, there was virtually no change across major markets. The market is currently waiting for news from US-Iran negotiations, entering a "choke period under maximum pressure."

First, the deadline is approaching (originally set to expire Tuesday night Eastern Time, but Trump indicated it will now expire Wednesday night).

Trump stated that the ceasefire will end on Wednesday night (ET), and that a further extension is "extremely unlikely." If no agreement is reached, he expects the war to break out again.

Funds have entered a "waiting period." The bulls dare not take large-scale positions before the ceasefire ends, because if negotiations fail on Wednesday and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices would explode destructively.

Second, the second round of negotiations remains unclear.

The latest update is that the US delegation (Vance, Kushner, etc.) will fly to Pakistan, but signals from Iran suggest a "possible absence" or "rejection of unilateral ultimatums."

However, Bloomberg cited sources saying Iran will also send a delegation, but it is currently unclear who will lead it.

The Wall Street Journal also quoted sources saying Iran has informed regional mediators that they will send a negotiation team to participate in the talks.

Earlier on Monday, Iranian state media suggested that Iranian officials might be absent from the negotiations due to what they called Washington's "excessive demands."

Third, Trump is deliberately creating uncertainty.

Trump’s self-contradictory comments about what might happen after the ceasefire's expiration have produced strategic ambiguity for the US to leverage during negotiations (there have been three different answers just regarding whether to extend the ceasefire agreement). This uncertainty could lead to misunderstandings between US and Iranian negotiators.

But for the market, Trump's lack of transparency is extremely shrewd, giving him firm control of market expectations. By using "statements" instead of the "oil strategic reserve," he eliminates market’s "certainty pricing."

Now, the market is waiting for the "Yes or No" outcome—don’t analyze the next two days based on the bullish logic of the past two weeks.