Everbright Futures 0422 Gold Review: Waller turns hawkish at hearing, gold prices under short-term pressure

Overnight, COMEX gold fluctuated and weakened. After today's opening, international gold prices rebounded. As of writing, the increase was about 0.45%, and market sentiment remains volatile.

On the policy side, last night, statements made by Fed Chair nominee Waller at the Senate confirmation hearing exerted some downward pressure on gold prices. Waller said he would "be committed to ensuring that the implementation of monetary policy always remains strictly independent," stressing that interest rate decisions "must be strictly independent from political considerations," and noted that Trump had never asked him to promise a rate cut. The market interpreted these remarks as a hawkish signal, and coupled with his call for the Fed to adopt "a new inflation framework and communication methods," expectations for a near-term shift to policy easing were further diminished, putting pressure on gold.

On the geopolitical front, dramatic reversals took place. Earlier in the day, Trump publicly stated he would not extend the US-Iran ceasefire due to expire on the 22nd, and threatened to resume bombing Iran once the ceasefire ended, triggering heightened risk aversion in the market. However, several hours later, Trump announced on social media, at Pakistan’s request, he had agreed to extend the ceasefire deadline while awaiting Iran’s negotiation proposal. He also instructed US troops to maintain the maritime blockade against Iran and stay in combat readiness. These back-and-forth statements led to repeated swings in market sentiment.

At the same time, the negotiation window was temporarily closed. Iran officially refused to attend the second round of talks originally scheduled in Islamabad on the 22nd, claiming the US was obstructing any meaningful agreement and that participation in talks was simply a waste of time. The US side subsequently stated that Vice President Vance’s planned trip to Islamabad had been postponed. The timing and prospects for further negotiations remain highly uncertain.

In summary, traffic disruption in the Strait of Hormuz pushed up oil prices and inflation expectations, and persistent expectations for Fed tightening have become the core factors weighing on gold. With negotiations between the US and Iran in repeated flux, market disagreement has increased in the short term. Before the outcome of negotiations becomes clear, traders are advised to control their positions and wait for a directional confirmation. However, judging from the current US preference for a negotiated solution, traders can also consider buying on dips during the current volatility.

Source: Everbright Futures Research Institute

Written by: Yao Tao

Professional Qualification: F3082336

Trading Consultation Qualification: Z0018553

Editor: Zhu Henan