Ceasefire Talks Fail, Gold Drops First! Struggling at 4730 and 4700 in Jeopardy

On Thursday (April 23) during the Asian session, spot gold continued its corrective trend, fluctuating down to around $4,730. The core of this pullback lies in shifting expectations regarding the Middle East situation: although the conflict has not ceased, discussions of a ceasefire have undermined gold’s safe-haven premium, leading some long positions to take profit and exit the market, which is moving from geopolitical panic back to rational trading.

[News Flash]

US-Iran diplomacy is stuck in a stalemate of a "false ceasefire, real confrontation." The US insists the April 7 ceasefire agreement is valid and is waiting for a proposal from Iran, but Tehran currently has no intention to negotiate, resulting in the cancellation of scheduled high-level talks and a sharp drop in expectations for a short-term breakthrough.

This "frozen conflict" is transmitting through energy channels globally. The persistent risk of a blockade at the Strait of Hormuz—responsible for 20% of the world's seaborne crude oil transport—continues to push up oil prices and exacerbate inflationary pressure. The market is forced to reprice monetary policy—major economies' expectations for rate cuts are being significantly delayed, maintaining a high-pressure interest rate environment.

This creates a "bull and bear squeeze" for gold: while geopolitical risks provide a floor of support, the high interest rate environment sharply raises the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, and the US dollar’s trend has become a key variable. If negotiations break down, safe-haven sentiment may struggle to withstand the pressure from a strong US dollar and high yields, limiting gold’s rebound potential.

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