「BTC OG Insider Whale」 Agent: The Evergrande Crisis is Severely Underestimated by the Market, Currently Without a Solution

BlockBeats News, April 23rd, "BTC OG Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin posted, stating that the current Brent crude oil is priced at $103, while the S&P 500 Index has hit a historical high. In March, Goldman Sachs' chief broker data showed a global short-to-long ratio of 7.6:1, the fastest global net sell-off in 13 years; after the ceasefire news, Goldman's "highest short" 50-stock basket surged 7.1% in a single day, representing a typical short-covering rather than a belief-driven buy. Trend-following funds (CTAs) are pouring record funds into the U.S. stock market, with the "Big Seven" rebounding 20% from the March 30th low point, and the Nasdaq achieving its longest winning streak since 1992.

However, the author believes that the assumptions supporting this rebound—such as the reopening of the Hormuz Strait, a drop in oil prices, easing inflation, and Fed rate cuts—all show no signs of materializing. The "48-hour drama" last weekend serves as proof: on April 17th, Iran announced the strait was "fully open," causing Brent to plummet by 9% to around $90; in less than 24 hours, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired on an oil tanker and broadcasted "any ship will be destroyed," with at least 9 oil tankers turning back. On April 23rd (today), Iran once again fired at three ships in the strait and seized two of them, resulting in a mutual U.S.-Iran blockade, and Brent returning to $103.

According to the CEO of Hapag-Lloyd, the reconstruction of shipping insurance will take at least 6–8 weeks. The restoration time for the physical damage to energy infrastructure caused by the seven-week war (such as Israeli bombing of South Pars, Iran's strike on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG hub, and the UAE's aluminum smelter) will be measured in months to years. The impasse in the Hormuz Strait is insoluble, and the only variable is the duration, as the market continues to play the classic "musical chairs" game.