The second round of negotiations between the US and Iran is really happening, with the probability of a meeting before the 29th now exceeding 50%.

BlockBeats reported that on April 25, recently the US side has frequently released signals about holding a second round of negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan as a "smokescreen," and the market has almost become immune to this with muted reactions. However, after US Special Envoy Whitkopf and Kushner confirmed they would meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi tonight, the US stock market and prediction market data responded simultaneously.

In the US stock market, according to Bitget market data, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices rapidly expanded their gains, hitting new intraday highs.

At the same time, according to monitoring by PolyBeats, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "the next round of US-Iran diplomatic meetings" taking place before several dates has rapidly increased, a stark contrast to the previously muted reactions following US "verbal" bullish signals. Currently, the probability of a meeting before the 26th is 29%, before the 27th is 43%, before the 28th is 48%, and before the 29th is 56%.