Will the Iran Conflict Reinforce the Long Bull Trend for Gold? Saxo Bank Claims: $10,000 Before 2030

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, has released a highly anticipated outlook, stating that gold could theoretically reach $10,000/oz by the end of this decade (2030).

In his view, the turmoil caused by the Iran war is only a short-term market disruption and will not interrupt gold’s long-term bull trend. Structural positives such as stagflation risk, elevated fiscal debt globally, and the weakening of the US dollar's reserve currency status are further solidifying the foundation for gold price appreciation.

Hansen published his commodity views via email, which were featured in the Insights column of global financial consultancy giant deVere. He stated directly that gold's upside potential far exceeds most commodities, and even if prices double, total physical demand—excluding the jewelry sector—would not be materially impacted.

Gold: Short-term Rally Delayed, Long-term Logic Strengthens

Hansen had originally expected gold to hit $6,000/oz within the year, but due to the Iran war driving up inflation and disrupting the path of central bank rate cuts, the timeline for this target may be delayed by about half a year.

In his framework, the Iran conflict is only a short-term obstacle for gold, not a long-term roadblock. The core logic supporting the gold price remains unshaken, and may even be reinforced: persistent stagflation risk, worsening fiscal debts in major economies, and growing doubts about the US dollar's long-term dominance all continue to work in gold's favor.

Hansen noted that the US dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency will not be fundamentally overturned in the short term, but central banks and institutional investors are clearly moving toward diversifying assets to reduce dollar dependence—and gold, as both a safe haven and reserve asset, is a primary beneficiary of this trend.

In the short term, rising inflation concerns have temporarily dampened gold’s upward momentum; but in the long run, once tensions stabilize, the price of gold still holds the potential to recover and reach new record highs. The underlying logic that initially drove gold’s rally has not disappeared; in fact, some conditions have even become more favorable.

Regarding the $10,000 long-term target, Hansen stressed that this is not an exact point forecast but a trend observation. The fact that gold can retain robust demand at high levels, coupled with continuously strengthening structural positives, makes this outlook realistically achievable.

Silver: Without New Catalysts, Unlikely to Retest Highs This Year

Compared to his bullish stance on gold, Hansen is clearly more cautious about silver. He believes unless gold surges dramatically, or entirely new macro or industry catalysts emerge, silver will struggle to break past its all-time high this year.

Hansen pointed out that as of April 28, the silver price had dropped from the pre-war level of around $93/oz to $73/oz. The Iran geopolitical conflict has exerted significant downward pressure on silver. The current gold-silver ratio hovers around 62, indicating silver is relatively expensive by historical standards. To outperform gold significantly, one of three conditions must materialize: a rebound in industrial demand, ongoing tightening of physical supply, or a renewed influx of speculative capital.

Hansen explained that geopolitical tensions have completely changed the macro environment for precious metals: pre-war, market focus was on cooling rate cut expectations and a weaker dollar; after the outbreak, energy prices surged, the dollar strengthened, and rate cut expectations were pushed back. Silver’s dual industrial nature and higher volatility mean it is much more sensitive to macro shifts than gold.

However, he emphasized that the war did not overturn silver’s long-term fundamentals. Physical supply remains tight, and the energy transition is supporting photovoltaic and other industrial demand, giving silver long-term support. This adjustment simply highlights silver’s weaknesses—extreme sensitivity to macro shocks and speculative flows, with far less risk resilience than gold.

Bull and Bear Scenarios for Gold and Silver in 2026, and Key Support Levels

Looking ahead to this year's performance, Hansen said that economic downturn remains silver’s biggest downside risk, directly dampening demand in cyclical sectors such as electronics, consumer products, and manufacturing, thus capping short-term upside. However, the energy crisis is forcing an accelerated global shift toward new energy, with robust silver demand from photovoltaics partially offsetting soft traditional industrial demand.

He noted, technically, silver’s core low-end support sits in the range above $60, with the 200-day moving average around $62.40 acting as a crucial line of defense. A decisive break below this would further weaken the trend.

Hansen said in a bearish scenario, if high inflation coincides with global economic weakness and industrial demand remains sluggish, silver will enter a prolonged period of underperformance relative to gold. The main reason is that investment and speculation make up a large share of silver demand, while pure rigid industrial support is insufficient—so when market sentiment turns cold, price reversals can be sudden and sharp.

On the other hand, in an optimistic scenario, persistent tightening in physical supply, stable solar sector silver demand, and strong investment enthusiasm could together allow silver to retest record highs in the years ahead.

By comparison, Hansen believes gold’s fundamentals are more solid, as it is not reliant on cyclical industrial demand. Central bank reserve diversification, sovereign debt concerns, and enduring geopolitical uncertainty collectively safeguard the gold price in the long run. Silver, by contrast, is a highly volatile, high-risk, high-potential-return commodity, more flexible but less predictable.

Industry Consensus: Gold Bull Run Intact, Silver Forecasts Cut

A Reuters survey of precious metals analysts in April echoes Hansen’s view. The consensus is that the Iran war has only temporarily slowed gold’s rally, not brought the bull market to an end; once hostilities subside, the price of gold will resume its upward march.

On average, analysts expect gold’s average price to reach $4,916/oz in 2026, and silver to average $72/oz, with the gold target revised higher since January. In contrast, silver forecasts have been repeatedly cut over the past three months, with average expectations dropping from $79.50 to $78.

Silver faces an awkward situation: while supply shortages are supportive, economic slowdown fears weigh on industrial demand, leaving bulls and bears deadlocked. As Hansen warned, silver is known as the "devil’s metal" for a reason: its volatility is extreme, and a change in market sentiment can swiftly reverse fortunes.

Outlook: Gold More Robust, Silver High-Risk for Chasing Highs

Overall, the long-term bullish outlook for precious metals is unchanged, but ongoing Middle East instability keeps markets unsettled, and short-term turbulence is unavoidable—silver in particular is highly vulnerable to shifts in investor sentiment.

deVere is also bullish on a gold rebound, forecasting that the price of gold is likely to hit $6,000 this year. The group CEO points out that once Middle East geopolitical pressure gradually subsides, gold is very likely to stage a powerful and swift rally.

In summary, institutions see a clear allocation logic: gold, leveraging its monetary and safe-haven qualities, is the optimal choice for stable long-term allocation; silver, with greater elasticity and higher return potential, comes with much fiercer volatility and more uncertainties—making it better suited for high-risk, tactical investors.