TD Securities: Gold Prices Expected to Surpass $5,000 by the End of 2026

FX168 Finance, May 1st—— Although gold prices have currently found short-term support above $4,600 per ounce, TD Securities in Canada stated that while the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, its performance is still significantly constrained by fluctuations in oil prices.

During the US trading session on Thursday (April 30), the international spot gold price hovered around $4,550–4,620 per ounce, having clearly pulled back from the historical highs of approximately $5,595–5,600 at the beginning of the year, but still up roughly 39% year-on-year. Recently, gold prices have shown a pattern of high-level consolidation, and briefly touched a one-month low in late April.

Although gold prices have currently found short-term support above $4,600 per ounce, TD Securities in Canada stated that while the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, its performance is still significantly constrained by fluctuations in oil prices.

In the latest precious metals report, Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, pointed out that gold is currently trapped in a consolidation phase. The main reason is the ongoing oil supply shock triggered by conflict in the Middle East, which continues to drive rising inflation concerns in the market, thereby forcing major central banks around the world to maintain a rather hawkish monetary policy stance.

In an environment of high real interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding gold rises sharply, which has directly led to persistently weak demand for gold from institutional investors, exchange traded funds (ETFs), and central banks around the world since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.




(Spot Gold Daily Chart Source: EasyMarkets)

Despite facing multiple unfavorable factors such as high inflation and tight monetary policy, the gold market still demonstrates a certain degree of resilience. Currently, gold prices have successfully held above a key support well above the 200-day moving average, which is now located near $4,258 per ounce. Spot gold traded at $4,619.90 per ounce intraday, up 1.6% on the day.

Melek emphasized that as long as the key support level of $4,258 per ounce is not effectively breached, gold's long-term upward trend will not be broken. However, he also warned that the continuously rising oil price remains the biggest downside risk for gold at present; if oil prices surge to $150 per barrel, gold could fall back toward the 200-day moving average.


Melek maintains an optimistic outlook for gold in the long term and once again reiterated his forecast: by the end of 2026, gold prices are expected to break above the $5,000 per ounce mark.

He analyzed that once the oil market gradually stabilizes and inflationary pressures ease, gold prices are likely to recover to the $5,200 per ounce range before the end of this year. At that time, the Federal Reserve may shift its policy focus to its core mission of full employment, while global high debt levels, de-dollarization progress, and a weakening US dollar will once again drive gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, into another bull run.

Furthermore, Melek also stated that the silver market is facing similar risks and opportunities as gold. High oil prices will suppress global economic activity in the short term, thereby reducing industrial demand for silver and putting pressure on silver prices. However, once the energy crisis eases, a rebound in industrial demand will provide strong support for silver prices.