According to CME Group's FedWatch, the market currently estimates that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as early as December this year, with a probability close to 51%. If postponed to January 2027, the probability of a rate hike rises to around 60%, and by March 2027, the probability exceeds 71%.

"The Federal Reserve Watch" uses the 30-day federal funds rate futures prices to estimate market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction. The sharp shift in market expectations this time is mainly driven by a series of higher-than-expected inflation data released this week. The latest data shows that both U.S. consumer inflation and wholesale inflation have reached multi-year highs, with import and export prices also rising to levels seen during the last inflation crisis. This has caused the market to renew concerns that the United States may return to a high inflation environment.