Caixin Futures: Black metal futures diverge amid oscillation; coking coal can be used as a long allocation within the black sector chain

⑴ Steel: Low-level oscillation, valuation shifting lower. Currently, steel demand is insufficiently driven, supply remains at a high level, and overall supply and demand expectations are weak. For the Rebar October contract, the top 20 positions saw similar increases in both long and short holdings, while the Hot Rolled Coil October contract experienced a more significant reduction in short positions. Technically, the Rebar October contract closed with a bearish oscillation, and under the pressure of moving averages, it may continue a weak adjustment in the short term. In terms of valuation, the market price is now below the cost line of East China blast furnace rebar and independent electric arc furnace valley power cost (around 3185), making the valuation neutrally biased to low. The short-term upward and downward space is likely limited, and as long as hot metal production does not drop significantly, finished steel can still be considered as the short allocation variety within the black chain.⑵ Iron Ore: High-level oscillation, valuation shifting lower. On the supply side, shipments continue to rebound, and with the end of the Australian fiscal year approaching in June, there is a surge in shipping. On the demand side, hot metal production remains high, supporting spot prices. Technically, the September contract closed bullish and attention should be paid to the support at the 60-day moving average; capital flows show little change between longs and shorts. In the short term, iron ore valuation may move down, but as long as hot metal output does not fall markedly, the downside space will remain limited.⑶ Coking Coal: Oscillation. Some temporarily halted coal mines have resumed production, but tightened safety supervision is slowing supply recovery, so short-term coal prices continue to rise. Capital-wise, in the top 20 positions both longs and shorts increased, with a greater increase in long positions. Technically, the September contract closed bullish in an oscillating range; short-term support can be referenced at 1,230 yuan/ton, with resistance at 1,290 yuan/ton. June is the safety production month, so attention should be paid to the pace of coal mine restoration and the risk of regulatory oversight on thermal coal pricing. In the short term, coking coal can be considered as the long allocation within the black chain.⑷ Coke: Valuation shows significant support. Rising raw material prices have pushed up immediate costs for coking enterprises, forcing some firms to cut production and causing a marginal decline in coke output. Hot metal production remains high, providing strong rigid demand support. Coke manufacturers still have an intention to increase prices, but with the traditional off-season for steel approaching, there may be renewed bargaining between steel mills and coke plants. After the fourth round of price hikes is fully implemented, the corresponding warrant cost is 1,880 yuan/ton, so in the short term, market prices will fluctuate around whether the fifth round of price hikes can be implemented.⑸ Silico-Manganese: Oscillation. Manganese ore shipments continue to decline, and port inventory has shifted from increasing to decreasing. Factories' operating rates have slightly rebounded but remain at low levels, with a pronounced preference for price-suppressed procurement. Overall supply and demand remain weak and steady, so in the short term, the market will mostly follow fluctuations in raw material coal. Technically, the July Silico-Manganese contract saw a reduction in positions with a rebound; support is at the 10-day moving average below, and resistance is likely around the 6,050 level above.