Survey shows: Analysts raise 2026 oil price forecasts for the third time this year; supply recovery may take several months

1. A survey of analysts shows that, since the outbreak of the Iran war at the end of February, market forecasts for 2026 oil prices have been raised for the third time. Analysts point out that it may take several months for energy supplies to fully recover to pre-conflict levels.2. According to the survey, the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 is expected to reach $90.44 per barrel, and the average US crude oil price is expected to be $84.63 per barrel, which are both higher than the April forecasts of $86.38 and $80.07 respectively. The latest predictions are about 40% higher than the estimates prior to the outbreak of the war in February.3. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, large-scale energy supply disruptions caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed both major benchmark oil prices to four-year highs, but current prices remain below the historical record set in 2008. Analysts believe that the likelihood of oil prices reaching new highs this year is low, and the space for further sharp increases from current levels is limited.4. Data shows that the Middle East's monthly crude oil exports have dropped from a pre-crisis daily average of about 18.3 million barrels to the current level of about 8.8 million barrels, a decline of more than half. Surveyed analysts note that the global oil market will face a significant supply gap in 2026, with estimated shortages ranging from 500,000 to 8 million barrels per day.5. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries forecasts global oil demand to grow by 1.17 million barrels per day in 2026, while the US Energy Information Administration expects demand to decrease by about 420,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, there are reports that major OPEC+ producers may agree to a small production increase in July, but analysts believe that with exports constrained, production policy is largely symbolic.