Bitget UEX Daily｜Trump Advances US-Iran Deal Signing; US Stocks Semiconductor Surge, Oil Declines; SpaceX Lists Today

I. Hotspot Headlines

Federal Reserve Dynamics Fed Holds Steady as Market Watches Geopolitical Developments for Policy Implications

• The Federal Reserve has not issued any major policy statements recently, but the market continues to monitor inflation and employment data closely.
• Trump announced the cancellation of strikes on Iran and stated that a US-Iran agreement is expected to be signed this weekend, potentially in Europe.
• Analysis: Easing geopolitical risks may reduce safe-haven demand, providing short-term support for risk assets. However, if deal details fall short of expectations, fluctuations in the dollar and oil prices could increase uncertainty in Fed decision-making.

International Commodities CME Plans 24/7 Trading for Crude Oil and Gold Contracts Amid Easing Geopolitical Tensions

• The CME Group plans to offer 7×24 hour trading for smaller-spec crude oil and gold contracts. The new crude contract size is one-tenth of the existing micro-WTI, while the 1-ounce gold contract will launch in July.
• Spot gold briefly reclaimed higher ground, supported by positive deal developments.
• Analysis: Around-the-clock trading will enhance liquidity and allow traders to manage geopolitical risks in real time. Reduced uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz eases short-term pressure on oil prices, but long-term supply-demand dynamics still warrant attention.

Macroeconomic Policy Strong Demand for Advanced Processes Drives TSMC Price Hike Considerations

• TSMC has increased 3nm monthly capacity to 175,000 wafers, yet it still falls short of meeting surging AI chip demand. Reports indicate potential price increases of up to 15% for the most constrained advanced processes in the second half of the year.
• Google’s TPU reportedly introduced Samsung foundry for the first time, easing pressure on TSMC capacity.
• Analysis: AI-driven chip demand remains robust, prompting supply chain adjustments that benefit related equipment and materials sectors, while also highlighting capacity bottlenecks as potential constraints on industry growth.

II. Market Review

Commodities & Forex Performance (Real-Time Update)

• Spot Gold: ~4200 USD/oz, -0.23%.
• Spot Silver: ~67 USD/oz, -0.06%.
• WTI Crude: ~86 USD/bbl, -1.43%.
• Brent Crude: ~89 USD/bbl, -1.45%.
• US Dollar Index (DXY): ~99.7, -0.1%.

Driving Factors Analysis: Progress on the US-Iran agreement has significantly eased geopolitical tensions. Trump confirmed approval of the text by all parties and canceled planned strikes, helping spot gold stabilize in the short term while pressuring oil prices (both WTI and Brent declined). The dollar index edged lower, reflecting improved risk appetite. Institutions believe that although short-term supply-demand has eased, long-term geopolitical uncertainty and global demand will continue to support commodities. The CME’s 24/7 trading initiative will further enhance market resilience. Overall, asset correlations show risk assets gaining, while precious metals maintain appeal at elevated levels.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: ~63670 USD, +2.88%.
• ETH: ~1670 USD, +2.74%.
• Total Crypto Market Cap: ~2.26 trillion USD, +2.5%.
• Market Liquidations: 24h total liquidations 270 million USD, short liquidations 197 million USD.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Heatmap: BTC has broken above the dense short position zone around 63,000 USD. A significant short liquidation cluster remains near 64,000-64,500 USD; continued upside could trigger a new round of short covering (Short Squeeze). The large long liquidation zone at 61,500-62,500 USD has largely cleared, resulting in a healthier short-term chip structure. Market focus is on whether it can hold above 64,000 USD and challenge 65,000 USD.

• Spot ETF Net Flow: BTC spot ETFs saw net outflows of 214 million USD yesterday.

Driving Factors Analysis: Easing geopolitical risks combined with the US tech stock rebound provided macro support for the crypto market, with BTC and ETH rising in tandem. ETF flows showed mild fluctuations, overall leverage liquidations remained manageable, and technicals oscillated in key ranges. The SpaceX IPO and strong semiconductor performance indirectly boosted sentiment. Institutional consensus holds that macro improvements and continued institutional interest will support the medium-term trend, though final implementation of the geopolitical deal requires vigilance for its impact on risk appetite.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at ~50,848.75 points (+1.86%), maintaining rebound momentum.
• S&P 500: Closed at ~7,394.30 points (+1.75%), hovering near highs.
• Nasdaq: Closed at ~25,809.66 points (+2.54%), driven primarily by technology and semiconductors.

Tech Giants Performance

• NVDA: 204.87 USD (+2.22%).
• AAPL: 295.63 USD (+1.39%).
• MSFT: 390.34 USD (-1.77%).
• GOOGL: 357.77 USD (+0.39%).
• AMZN: 241.51 USD (+1.47%).
• META: 568.43 USD (-0.45%).
• TSLA: 399.15 USD (+4.60%).

Performance Summary & Driving Analysis: The technology sector rebounded overall, with the semiconductor index surging and storage and aerospace service concepts performing strongly. Individual stock differentiation was evident: Intel, Micron, and other chip stocks rose sharply due to tight advanced process supply and strong AI demand, while Oracle faced pressure from higher-than-expected capital expenditure. The impending SpaceX IPO boosted space-related concepts, and Google’s introduction of Samsung foundry highlighted supply chain diversification. Geopolitical easing encouraged capital rotation from defensive to growth areas, but valuation pressures and company-specific events led to differentiated performance, with AI themes remaining the dominant narrative.

Crypto Market Stock Contracts Trading Data

• 24H Total Trading Volume: 26 billion USD (-13.65%).
• Total Open Interest (OI): 7.23 billion USD (-4.29%).
• 24H Total Liquidations: 29.34 million USD.
• Trading Volume Share: 14.18%.
• OI Share: 6.91%.
• Liquidation Share: 10.87%.

Market Interpretation: Stock contract trading volume and open interest both declined, indicating cooling short-term risk appetite. However, liquidation volumes remained limited, suggesting proactive position reduction rather than panic selling.

Sector OI Performance

• Technology Sector: 1.23 billion USD (leading by a wide margin).
• Financial Sector: 157 million USD.
• Consumer Sector: 67.03 million USD.
• Industrial Sector: 19.45 million USD.
• Biotech Sector: 17.16 million USD.

Market Interpretation: Technology continues to dominate capital allocation, with funds concentrated in AI, semiconductors, and mega-cap tech stocks. The financial sector ranks second, reflecting ongoing focus on interest rates and macro policy expectations.

Heatmap Fund Flows (by OI)

Commodities

• Gold (GOLD): 3.12 billion USD (largest position).
• Silver (SILVER): 686 million USD.
• WTI Crude: 567 million USD.
• Brent Crude (BRENT): 340 million USD.

Tech Stocks

• NVIDIA (NVDA): 242 million USD.
• SanDisk (SNDK): 185 million USD.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL): 154 million USD.
• Google (GOOGL): 106 million USD.
• Circle (CRCL): 101 million USD.
• Tesla (TSLA): 87.73 million USD.
• Intel (INTC): Active positioning.

Market Interpretation: Safe-haven flows remain concentrated in gold and silver, with gold holdings exceeding 3.12 billion USD. In tech stocks, NVIDIA, SanDisk, Marvell, and other AI supply chain names continue to attract capital as investors bet on AI infrastructure and computing power demand growth.

Sector Movers Observation Semiconductor Sector up over 7%

• Representative stocks: Micron Technology +~12%, Intel +over 9%.
• Driving factors: Tight supply of advanced processes and strong AI demand.

Storage Concept strong gains

• Representative stock: SanDisk +over 14%.
• Driving factors: Expectations around NAND technology iterations.

Space Concept notable surge

• Representative stock: Virgin Galactic +~22%.
• Driving factors: SpaceX IPO listing today boosting sector sentiment.

III. In-Depth US Stock Analysis

1. TSMC (TSM) - Advanced Process Price Hike Expectations Event Overview: TSMC has raised 3nm monthly capacity to 175,000 wafers, yet it still struggles to meet explosive AI chip demand. Supply chain reports suggest price increases of up to 15% for the tightest advanced processes in the second half to offset upstream cost pressures. Google’s TPU reportedly introduced Samsung 2nm foundry for certain components, marking deeper supply chain diversification to reduce single-vendor reliance on TSMC, while Google’s core compute engines remain on TSMC’s 1.4nm process. Market Interpretation: Institutions widely recognize TSMC’s pricing power and technological barriers in advanced processes but caution investors on capacity expansion pace, intensifying global competition, and potential geopolitical impacts on supply chains. Investment Insight: Short-term capacity bottlenecks are expected to support valuation premiums. Long-term, closely monitor AI capex cycles and diversified supplier strategies to evaluate sustainable growth potential.

2. Intel (INTC) - BofA Upgrades Rating Event Overview: Intel shares surged over 9% after BofA Securities upgraded the rating from “Underperform” to “Buy” with a $135 target price. Analysts highlighted strong server chip prospects and undervalued foundry business potential, forecasting EPS exceeding $6 by 2030 — a significant upward revision. The upgrade reflects renewed market confidence in Intel’s long-term competitiveness in AI infrastructure and chip manufacturing. Market Interpretation: Multiple institutions view this as the start of Intel’s valuation recovery cycle, though execution risks and industry cyclicality remain key concerns. Investment Insight: Offers an attractive entry point for valuation recovery. Investors should focus on technology execution and semiconductor cycle turning points.

3. Oracle (ORCL) - Capital Expenditure Concerns Event Overview: Oracle shares continued to fall over 8% after quarterly capital expenditure exceeded expectations, heightening worries about the sustainability of AI infrastructure profitability. The company’s debt stands at approximately $117 billion, making it the largest bond issuer outside the financial sector. While heavy spending supports cloud and AI initiatives, near-term earnings pressure is significant. Market Interpretation: Analysts are focused on capital returns and debt management, viewing earnings realization path as the critical watchpoint. Some maintain neutral-to-cautious stances. Investment Insight: In the short term, monitor cost control and cash flow. Long-term, the AI cloud business layout retains strategic potential, suitable for moderate risk tolerance investors.

4. SpaceX Related Developments - IPO Listing Today Event Overview: SpaceX is set to list on Nasdaq (ticker: SPCX) via an IPO offering $75 billion in shares. It has already attracted over $70 billion in retail subscriptions and at least $5 billion from BlackRock. The IPO is in final stages, with retail investors expected to receive at least 20% allocation. Ark Investment analyst Brett Winton projects the orbital data center business could contribute $300 billion in annual revenue by the end of the decade, combined with Starlink and rocket technology for multi-engine growth. Market Interpretation: Institutions remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of the space economy. As the industry leader, SpaceX’s IPO pricing and post-listing performance will serve as a key benchmark for the sector. Investment Insight: Pay close attention to final IPO pricing and post-listing liquidity. Related space concept stocks may continue to benefit from catalysts, but valuation bubble risks should be assessed.

IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates

1. Asset manager Fidelity Investments has selected Uniswap as the liquidity infrastructure for its stablecoin FIDD, with the FIDD liquidity pool now live on the Uniswap protocol.
2. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X that BlackRock has filed Form 8-A for its Bitcoin yield ETF BITA. This step typically precedes a formal launch within a week; he expects the product to begin trading next Thursday.
3. Galaxy Digital Research head Alex Thorn posted on X that the US SEC has proposed repealing Rule 611 (Order Protection Rule) and Rule 610(e) (Locked/Crossed Markets) under Reg NMS. Thorn noted that Rule 611 is one of the biggest obstacles to tokenized stock trading on DeFi. AMMs cannot comply, making any tokenized stock liquidity pool perpetually non-compliant. Repeal would replace it with a “best execution” principle at the broker level, enabling compatibility with automated market makers.
4. JPMorgan analyst team head Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated that the de-dollarization hedge trade has been fading, with Bitcoin’s retreat accelerating recently. Gold ETFs saw outflows of about $20 billion in the week to June 5, while Bitcoin ETFs have seen gradual outflows over the past four weeks. The hedge involves buying Bitcoin and gold amid geopolitical uncertainty, inflation, rising government debt, and dollar diversification needs. JPMorgan noted the trade is unwinding across ETFs, futures, and investor positions. Bitcoin’s correlation with 10-year real yields has recently turned negative, while gold’s correlation with the S&P 500 is closer to Bitcoin’s positive stock correlation, indicating both are behaving more like risk assets lately.
5. Strike founder and Twenty One Capital CEO Jack Mallers stated that Bitcoin’s current price reflects the true state of the global liquidity crisis. He pointed to the University of Michigan consumer confidence index at historic lows while the S&P 500 is at record highs, showing central bank interventions have distorted market signals. Mallers called Bitcoin “the closest thing we have to monetary truth.”

V. Today’s Market Calendar

Key Event Preview June 12, 2025 (Friday)

1. SpaceX Officially Lists on Nasdaq (ticker: SPCX): Historic IPO event and first trading day — high market sentiment impact. ★★★★★
2. US Economic Data: June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary, June 1-Year Inflation Expectations Preliminary.

Institutional Views: Prominent investment banks and analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic stance on current markets. Geopolitical easing (such as US-Iran deal progress) supports risk assets. The strong rebound in US stocks, particularly semiconductors, underscores the resilience of AI demand, while falling oil prices highlight eased supply concerns. Banks like BofA are bullish on Intel and similar names’ long-term potential, while taking a neutral-to-oscillatory short-term view on gold and crude. The crypto market benefits from macro improvements, with ETF flows volatile but medium-term trends positive. Consensus emphasizes monitoring deal implementation details, inflation data, and Fed signals, advising investors to seek structural opportunities amid volatility and avoid excessive leverage.

Disclaimer: The above content has been compiled and organized through AI search, with human review conducted solely for verification and publication purposes. It does not constitute any investment advice. Data in the text inevitably contains deviations; please refer to real-time market data for accuracy.