This Week's Macro Outlook: US-Iran Agreement Sets Bullish Tone, US and Japan Interest Rate Decisions Test Bull Market, Powell's "Debut" Worth Watching

BlockBeats News, June 15th. At the beginning of this week, the agreement between the US and Iran seemed to set the tone for the continuation of the US stock market bull run, with the market opening high to welcome the good news. However, the market's focus will shift midweek to the interest rate decisions of several major central banks, with Powell giving his first key speech after taking office. The market expects him to send a clear signal on the expected interest rate path and the reform of the Fed's communication mechanism. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times in Eastern 8 Zone):

Monday 15:15, ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech;

**Tuesday TBD, Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision; 14:30, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya holds a press conference on monetary policy;**

Tuesday 20:15, ADP Employment Change for the week ending May 30th in the US;

**Thursday 2:00, Fed FOMC announces interest rate decision and economic projections; 2:30, Fed Chair Powell holds a press conference on monetary policy;**

Thursday 20:30, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 13th in the US, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for June.

On the policy signal front, the market is focusing on whether three hawkish signals from the Fed will materialize: First is whether the phrase "next step tilts towards rate cut" in the original policy statement will be removed. If this phrase is removed, it means the Fed is officially ending its previous dovish bias and shifting to a policy stance centered on fighting inflation. Second is the dot plot change; the March dot plot indicated a rate cut later this year, but this dot plot is likely to show rate stability, and there may even be a majority of officials expecting a rate hike. Lastly is the tilt in risk appetite. If officials' concerns about inflation significantly increase and worries about the labor market recede, it could pave the way for future rate hikes.

**Friday (June 19th), due to the June holiday, the US New York Stock Exchange will be closed for one day.** **Trading of CME Group's precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, stock index, and US Treasury futures contracts will end at 01:00 on June 20th (Eastern 8 Zone), and trading of ICE's Brent crude oil futures contracts will end at 01:30 on June 20th (Eastern 8 Zone).**