Barclays: Geopolitical "adjustments" are fading, spot gold will rebound to $4,900

Golden Ten Data reported on June 16 that Barclays believes the gold sell-off triggered by the Middle East conflict is not a reversal, but rather a market reset. The bank pointed out three direct reasons: a significant strengthening of the US dollar, the stock market attracting risk capital away from defensive assets, and excessively concentrated positions accelerating the decline. Barclays estimates that the combined effect of a stronger US dollar and a 10% rise in the S&P 500 index led to a roughly 10% drop in gold prices, with the remaining decline caused by position unwinding. However, the bank also acknowledges that, based on fair value, these forecasts carry some short-term downside risk. Structural factors supporting a long-term bullish trend include persistent inflation, policy uncertainty, and ongoing foreign exchange reserve diversification by central banks. These are considered variables that accumulate their impact slowly and thus did not provide significant support during the acute phase of the crisis. According to the bank’s calculations, the two main conditions for a rebound in gold prices are the reestablishment of a weakening US dollar and the resumption of sustained central bank purchasing.