Bitcoin's rally and HYPE's record run mask a market still waiting for real conviction, analysts say

Bitcoin traded above $66,000 and ether above $1,800 on Tuesday, extending a rally built on easing geopolitical tensions, while Hyperliquid's (HYPE) token notched a fresh all-time high above $76, according to The Block’s price page.

Earlier this week, bitcoin (BTC) topped $65,000 as reports of a U.S.-Iran peace deal eased geopolitical fears, extending into a fourth consecutive day of gains.

Separately, Strive's chief investment officer had said that prolonged bitcoin weakness could drive consolidation among corporate treasury firms, a dynamic now drawing fresh scrutiny as several analysts question whether the current bounce reflects durable demand.

HYPE's record run

The move came alongside continued institutional interest in Hyperliquid, with spot HYPE exchange-traded funds nearing $900 million in cumulative trading volume as an early demand signal.

HYPE's push past $76 extends a multi-month climb tied to Hyperliquid's buyback mechanics, where the bulk of platform fees flow into an Assistance Fund that systematically purchases the token on the open market. Previously, Citrini Research called Hyperliquid a "compelling" investment due to that buyback strategy and ETF demand.

Spot HYPE ETFs, including products from Bitwise, 21Shares, and Grayscale, have drawn largely positive net inflows since their May 12 launch, a contrast to the persistent outflows hitting spot bitcoin and ether funds over the same stretch.

No confirmed bottom

Wintermute said bitcoin's rebound from the low $60,000s does not yet confirm a structural bottom, warning that ETF, stablecoin, and digital asset treasury flows still show no clear reversal.

The market maker said bitcoin could remain choppy through thin summer liquidity and may still fall into the $50,000 range, adding that sustained ETF and stablecoin inflows are the signal to watch.

Analysts at Glassnode added that capitulation intensity is fading and taker behavior has turned constructive, but called the move a consolidation base rather than a confirmed reversal.

The firm pointed to thin volume, a declining derivatives footprint, and ongoing capital outflows as evidence that institutional re-engagement remains the missing catalyst.

Selling has stopped, buying hasn't proven itself

Bitfinex analysts echoed Wintermute and Glassnode's take, stating that bitcoin's selling pressure has eased, but genuine demand has yet to materialize.

"What the tape shows is seller exhaustion arriving at the same moment as a macro reprieve, which is a different condition from genuine demand," the firm wrote, adding that bulls face hurdles before an uptrend can form.

Analysts placed bitcoin between the aggregate realized price near $54,000 as a cycle floor and resistance near $68,000 and higher from short-term holder cohorts.

Bitfinex said ETF and treasury company demand needs to turn positive before bitcoin can sustain a spot bid, and warned that a collapse in the Iran truce could reverse the macro tailwind currently supporting both bitcoin and gold.

Volatility normalizing into FOMC

Laser Digital's derivatives desk noted that bitcoin's 200-day moving average held as a key support level over the weekend, with reduced selling pressure and muted ETF outflows compared with the prior week.

Realized volatility stayed below 1% last week outside a sharp one-day rally tied to the conflict resolution news, and implied volatility has eased in tandem.

The desk said this week's Federal Reserve meeting, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh, is the dominant catalyst, alongside central bank decisions from the RBA, BOJ, and BOE.

What's ahead

The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting concludes Wednesday with Warsh's first press conference as chair.

Bitfinex said a credible easing in oil-driven inflation pressure could give the Fed cover to treat May's price spike as transitory, while warning that a reversal of the truce would reinstate the pressures the U.S.-Iran deal has eased.