441 Giant Ships Gather Outside the Strait of Hormuz! Oil Transport Market Awaits Full Passage Signal

More than 400 large vessels are currently on standby in the eastern waters of the Strait of Hormuz, as the oil transportation market holds its breath awaiting the full reopening of this critical global energy corridor. Negotiation progress and Iran's fluctuating statements have left ship owners and operators hesitant to act rashly.

According to an analysis by the Financial Times using European Space Agency satellite data, as of Sunday at 14:15 GMT, a total of 441 large tanker-class vessels had gathered near the ports of Sohar and Fujairah—the two major terminals on the eastern side of the strait. This number has increased significantly compared to April, when the US began to close the strait. Several shipping companies have indicated they are assembling vessels close to the Gulf to quickly seize opportunities when the strait fully reopens.

However, the situation remains uncertain.

Following Israeli strikes on Lebanon, Iran announced another closure of the strait last Saturday. The US and Iran conducted intensive negotiations in Switzerland from Sunday through early Monday, with a US official stating that discussions covered "clarifying Iran’s confusing statements regarding the Strait of Hormuz" and establishing "mechanisms for conflict avoidance" to ensure the uninterrupted flow of traffic through the channel.

According to the latest report from Xinhua News Agency on Monday, Iran’s negotiation team says five key points were reached in US–Iran talks. The two sides agreed to set up a hotline regarding management of the Strait of Hormuz to ensure its gradual reopening.

Record High Scale of Vessel Assembly, But Slight Decrease from Five Days Ago

Citing Sentinel-1 radar satellite images, 441 large vessels are currently tightly packed outside the eastern edge of the strait. Although this figure is exceptionally high by historical standards, it marks a decrease of 42 vessels compared to the last satellite pass five days ago—indicating that after the preliminary US–Iran agreement last week, some ship operators took advantage of improved security conditions to attempt transit.

Radar imaging has clear advantages over optical satellites: it can capture images at night and is unaffected by cloud cover, while also detecting vessels without activated transponders. However, the data only estimates ship sizes and cannot accurately identify individual vessels.

Some Ships Test Waters First, Confidence Gradually Recovers

Despite ongoing uncertainty, some vessels have begun attempting transit.

On Monday morning, four Qatari LNG carriers were passing through the strait—the highest single-day number since the conflict erupted on February 28.

On Saturday, the container ship MSC Qingdao sailed out of the Gulf along a route close to the Omani coast, with its transponder switched on throughout and broadcasting its position publicly—signaling that, despite concerns over the sustainability of the US–Iran agreement, the owners’ worries about Iranian attacks have eased. MSC had several vessels previously struck by Iran, with two detained by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Meanwhile, since the US agreed on Wednesday to lift restrictions on Iranian ports and ships, the frequency of Iranian tankers moving in and out of the Gulf has risen significantly.

Iran's "60-Day Clause" and Subsequent Toll Proposals Draw Market Attention

One of the core points of contention in the negotiations is Iran’s prior suggestion that when the 60-day transition period ends, they may require transiting vessels to pay a toll in some form, such as mandating purchase of Iranian insurance.

This statement has led ship owners and operators to harbor concerns over long-term transit arrangements.

US officials stated that one focus of the Swiss talks was to clarify the above "confusing statement” and set up corresponding conflict avoidance mechanisms to keep the strait fully open.

Market Awaits Clear Signal; Full Reopening Still Requires Final Agreement

Ship movements over the past week indicate that operators’ confidence is gradually recovering, with some previously high-risk routes under new consideration—even though a final agreement remains unsigned. However, Iran’s renewed closure statement last Saturday serves as a reminder that, until a formal deal is in place, the situation could continue to fluctuate.

Sentinel-1 satellite imagery on Sunday showed no significant vessel transits in the main strait channel. Full recovery of the oil shipping market still relies on whether US–Iran talks can quickly produce a binding final agreement, with explicit and enforceable arrangements for the strait’s long-term openness.