June 23 Member Morning Brief: Alphabet Plunges Intraday, US and Iran Set 60-Day Roadmap, International Oil Prices Give Back All War Premiums

1. [Alphabet Plunges During Trading] On Monday, June 22, Eastern Time, Alphabet's stock price fell by about 7% during trading, dropping to just above $340, and dragged Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft down simultaneously; on the same day, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 quarterly constituent adjustments amplified volatility as passive funds rotated assets. However, the true trigger was an earnings report that should have been positive news.

2. [US-Iran Finalize 60-Day Roadmap, International Oil Price Gives Back All War Premiums] From June 21 to 22, US and Iranian delegations concluded the first round of high-level talks at the Bürgenstock resort by Lake Lucerne, Switzerland. Mediators Qatar and Pakistan issued a joint statement saying that the talks made "encouraging progress," and a communication channel was established in the Strait of Hormuz to prevent misjudgments; both sides formed a "High-Level Committee" to supervise political matters and agreed on a roadmap to reach a final agreement within 60 days, with technical negotiations continuing in the next two months. Working groups on nuclear issues, sanctions, and supervision and dispute resolution were established and initiated immediately after the talks. The oil market reacted almost instantly. Against a backdrop of easing geopolitical tensions and potential recovery of supply in the Persian Gulf, WTI crude fell to around $74.3 a barrel on Monday, the lowest since early March—essentially erasing the war premium driven by the recent conflict.

3. [US Issues 60-Day Temporary License, Lifts Iran Oil Ban] On June 22, local time, the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a temporary general license, codenamed "General License X," authorizing all transactions related to the production, sale, delivery, and unloading of Iranian-origin crude oil, petrochemical products, and refined oil products, effective until August 21, 2026. US Treasury Secretary Bensent confirmed this decision on social platform X.

4. [UK Prime Minister Starmer Officially Resigns] On the morning of Monday, June 22, Eastern Time, UK Prime Minister Starmer officially announced his resignation in front of 10 Downing Street, less than two years after leading the Labour Party to a landslide election victory and pledging to "end the chaos in British politics."

5. [Goldman Sachs Cuts Global Smartphone Shipment Forecast] In its latest report, Goldman Sachs revised down its forecast for global smartphone shipments in 2026 by 4% to 1.14 billion units, with an annual decrease expanded from -6% to -10%; the 2027 forecast was lowered by 3% to 1.17 billion units, but the annual growth rate was slightly revised up from +2% to +3%. The report also introduced a 2028 forecast for the first time, with shipments expected to reach 1.182 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 1%. Goldman Sachs attributed the main reason for this downward revision to two factors: firstly, rising memory costs are suppressing end-user demand; and secondly, the overall market has approached saturation.