QCP Capital: The market focus has shifted from the signing of the US-Iran agreement to implementation risks, while the Federal Reserve signals a longer-term maintenance of high interest rates.

BlockBeats news, on June 24, QCP Capital released its daily observation, stating that after the signing of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU), the market's focus has shifted from the agreement itself to the risks in the execution phase. Although Brent crude oil prices have fallen below $80, navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has not fully recovered, with only about 14 ships transiting daily, far below normal levels. The progress of technical negotiations over the next 60 days and the implementation of the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire will be key indicators to watch.

In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, but its 2026 dot plot median has been raised from 3.4% to 3.8%, indicating that the "Higher for Longer" stance has been further strengthened. At the same time, the Federal Reserve raised its 2026 inflation forecast from 2.7% to 3.6%, highlighting that inflation remains the core policy constraint at present.

In the technology sector, SpaceX's stock price has fallen from its post-IPO high of $211 to $155, a 27% drop from the peak, but it is still above the issue price of $135. QCP believes that market narrative is shifting from IPO fever to AI financing logic, and SpaceX is gradually becoming an important part of the AI capital formation cycle.

In the crypto market, Strategy continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings, now holding 847,363 BTC, accounting for about 4% of the total Bitcoin supply, with an average holding cost of $75,651. QCP points out that although Strategy's financing and accumulation mechanism is still operating, given the spot price is below its average cost and the preferred stock price has fallen below par, its space to continue leveraged Bitcoin accumulation in the future is narrowing.