The US dollar faces pressure at the end of the month, with post-FOMC strength unlikely to be sustained.
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- Deutsche Bank believes that the US dollar appears overly stretched in its rebound after the FOMC meeting, and they prefer to reduce dollar holdings on rallies before the end of the month.
- Despite both US crude oil prices and Treasury yields falling on Thursday, the US Dollar Index has yet to reverse, suggesting the potential for mean-reversion downside in the coming trading days.
- Relative equity market performance points to strong USD/JPY buying on month-end itself, and this pair may break above the 162.00 level, which could trigger concerns about intervention in the market.
- Deutsche Bank expects the market to view any potential USD/JPY intervention as another opportunity to buy the pair on dips.
- In addition, month-end seasonality on Friday (T-2 day) tends to support CAD/SEK buying, with an average 10-year return of 35 basis points.
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