Crypto prediction markets hit record volume as 60% of users are first-timers

Something quiet is happening at the edges of crypto — and the numbers from a new Bitget Wallet report make it hard to ignore. Crypto prediction markets hit an all-time high in daily trading volume in June 2026, fueled largely by World Cup momentum. But the more revealing story sits underneath the volume spike: the majority of people flooding into these platforms had never touched onchain trading before.

Key takeaways

• 60% of Polymarket users had no prior onchain trading history before joining prediction markets, based on a 90-day study of 857,000 active users.
• Prediction markets set a new all-time high in daily trading volume in June 2026, driven by World Cup activity.
• Polymarket-heavy users averaged 1,194 prediction market interactions over 90 days, versus just 11.9 DEX trades in the same period.
• Despite Polymarket running on Polygon, only 6% of users’ DEX activity occurs on that chain — most liquidity flows to Ethereum-based venues like Uniswap.
• Meme coin exposure among these users represents roughly 1% of DEX activity, with stablecoin swaps and major assets dominating.

Prediction Markets Reach Record Trading Volume

June 2026 marked a record-breaking month for the sector. Prediction market platforms posted their highest-ever daily trading volumes, with the World Cup acting as a catalyst that pulled in enormous user attention around real-world event outcomes. The timing matters: large sporting events have historically driven spikes in engagement across betting and prediction platforms, but the scale here points to something more durable than a seasonal bump.

What makes this volume milestone different is who is behind it. This isn’t just existing crypto traders rotating into a new product category. According to Bitget Wallet’s analysis of 857,000 active Polymarket users over a 90-day window, 60% arrived with zero prior onchain trading history. That’s a majority of users entering crypto for the first time — not through a token sale, not through a DEX, not through a DeFi protocol, but through a platform that asked them simply: what do you think will happen?

New User Onboarding Through Prediction Markets

High Percentage of New Onchain Users

The 60% figure reframes what prediction markets actually are. These platforms aren’t just an alternative trading vertical for crypto natives — they’re functioning as the front door. And the door opens not with a lesson on gas fees or liquidity pools, but with a question about the World Cup final or the next election outcome.

That’s a genuinely different kind of entry point. Previous waves of crypto onboarding tended to be protocol-first: users learned about wallets, acquired tokens, navigated DEX interfaces, and eventually built up exposure across DeFi. The friction was real and the drop-off was steep. Prediction markets sidestep that entire stack, presenting blockchain activity as something that looks and feels much closer to a sports betting app or a news-driven speculation tool.

Application-Led Onboarding vs Protocol-Led Onboarding

“Prediction markets are increasingly acting as the first meaningful entry point into crypto for users who may never interact with traditional DeFi,” said Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet. “What we are seeing is a shift from protocol-led onboarding to application-led onboarding, where users engage with outcomes and interfaces, not blockchain mechanics.”

That distinction matters strategically. In protocol-led onboarding, understanding the infrastructure is a prerequisite. In application-led onboarding, the infrastructure is largely invisible — blockchain runs in the background while users focus on outcomes: sports fixtures, political developments, macroeconomic events. The mechanics of Polygon, gas optimization, or token approval flows never need to enter the conversation.

This is the quiet structural shift. Crypto stops requiring fluency in its own plumbing before participation becomes possible.

User Trading Behavior and Activity Patterns

Engagement Levels on Prediction Markets vs DEX

Once onboarded, users stay deeply engaged — but almost exclusively within the prediction market layer. Polymarket-heavy users averaged approximately 1,194 prediction market interactions over 90 days. During that same period, the average DEX trade count for those same users was just 11.9.

That’s a ratio of roughly 100:1. Prediction market activity isn’t supplementing DeFi usage — it’s replacing it as the primary engagement surface. For most of these users, the DEX is an occasional detour, not a home base.

DEX Activity Characteristics and Platform Usage

When users do venture into decentralized exchange activity, their behavior is notably conservative. Stablecoin swaps and major assets account for the bulk of downstream DEX volume. Meme coin exposure sits at roughly 1% — a striking contrast with the broader reputation of crypto retail users as meme-coin-driven speculators.

The chain distribution tells its own story. Polymarket runs on Polygon, yet only around 6% of these users’ DEX activity occurs on Polygon. The majority of liquidity flows toward Ethereum-based venues, with Uniswap as the dominant destination. This suggests that even users who enter crypto through a Polygon-native application don’t necessarily develop Polygon-native trading habits. Ethereum’s liquidity depth and ecosystem familiarity continues to pull users back, regardless of where they started.

Taken together, the behavioral data paints a picture of a user base that is application-native rather than ecosystem-native. They engage with outcomes and events, not with token selection strategies or liquidity provision mechanics. That’s a fundamentally different kind of crypto participant — and one that existing infrastructure was largely not designed to serve.

Bitget Wallet’s Role and Market Position

Product Overview

The report comes from Bitget Wallet, a self-custodial crypto wallet that has been operating since 2018. The platform supports more than 90 million users worldwide, spanning over one million tokens across 130+ blockchains. Its infrastructure includes Visa and Mastercard crypto cards, localized payment methods across 100+ fiat currencies, and a user protection fund exceeding US$300 million.

The wallet’s position at the intersection of self-custody and broad multi-chain access gives it a meaningful vantage point to observe how users actually behave onchain — which is what makes the behavioral data in this report credible as a window into the prediction market phenomenon rather than just a promotional claim.

Funding and Market Support

In 2022, Bitget Wallet raised a US$100 million funding round led by Dragonfly, one of the more prominent crypto-focused investment firms. That backing has positioned the wallet to invest in infrastructure and analytics capabilities that support research efforts like this 90-day Polymarket user study.

Why the Onboarding Shift Has Broader Implications

The implications extend well beyond Polymarket or even the prediction market category. If a growing share of new crypto users are arriving through applications tied to real-world events rather than through DeFi protocols or token ecosystems, then the entire mental model of crypto onboarding needs updating.

Wallets, exchanges, and infrastructure providers have historically built onboarding flows assuming a user who wants to “get into crypto” — someone motivated by token exposure or yield. The prediction market user is motivated by something different: they want to express an opinion about what will happen in the world, and they happen to be doing it onchain. That’s a user with different needs, different retention drivers, and potentially different long-term paths through the ecosystem.

The sector’s record-setting June also arrives at a moment when broader competition is intensifying. The prediction market space — long dominated by Polymarket and Kalshi — is reportedly drawing interest from players with far larger distribution networks. Whether that competitive pressure accelerates mainstream adoption or fragments the user base will shape how durable this onboarding layer actually becomes.

FAQ

What role are prediction markets playing in crypto onboarding?

Prediction markets are increasingly acting as a primary entry point into crypto, attracting users new to onchain trading through application-level interfaces. Rather than requiring users to understand DeFi infrastructure or decentralized exchanges first, these platforms engage users around real-world outcomes — sports, politics, macroeconomic events — with blockchain infrastructure operating largely in the background.

How do Polymarket users engage with prediction markets compared to decentralized exchanges?

The difference is dramatic. Polymarket-heavy users averaged approximately 1,194 prediction market interactions over a 90-day period, compared to just 11.9 DEX trades during the same window. Prediction market activity dominates their onchain behavior by a roughly 100:1 margin.

What types of tokens dominate user trading activity on decentralized exchanges among these users?

DEX trading among Polymarket users is concentrated in stablecoin swaps and major assets. Meme coin exposure accounts for only around 1% of DEX activity — far below what might be expected from retail-driven crypto participants.

What is Bitget Wallet and how large is its user base?

Bitget Wallet is a self-custodial crypto wallet that has operated since 2018, supporting over 90 million users worldwide and more than one million tokens across 130+ blockchains. The platform raised a US$100 million funding round led by Dragonfly in 2022 and maintains a user protection fund of over US$300 million.

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Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.